Sha Tin · 2021-12-29 · 20:51
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | RUN DES RUN Closed strongly TT 1.38.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · T P Yung | R Maia | T P Yung | 14 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | SPEED FORCE Closed strongly B M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 8 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | EL VALIENTE Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 13 | 7.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly PC J Moreira · L Ho | J Moreira | L Ho | 5 | 5.6 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly B B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 4 | 4.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | ALL YOU KNOW Closed strongly B/H/TT C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 6 | 21.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | NOBLE MAN B/TT V Borges · K L Man | V Borges | K L Man | 7 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | SHANGHAI GRACE B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 12 | 17.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | TURF BRILLIANT Closed strongly B K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 9 | 14.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | PRESIDENT STAR Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum | A Hamelin | C S Shum | 11 | 62.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | LITTLE PLAYER B- L Ferraris · D A Hayes | L Ferraris | D A Hayes | 3 | 28.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 0 | PRIME STAR B/TT H T Mo · A T Millard | H T Mo | A T Millard | 1 | 35.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 13 | 0 | LUCKY VICTOR Led early B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 2 | 5.9 | 10-1/4 |
| 14 | 0 | SMART COUSIN H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 10 | 59.0 | 12-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-29 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. RUN DES RUN, ridden by R Maia and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-1/4, with SPEED FORCE second and EL VALIENTE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite CROWN AVENUE finished 5th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR | 21.7% | 4.60 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | EL VALIENTE | 11.8% | 8.44 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | TURF BRILLIANT | 11.8% | 8.47 | 9 |
| 4 | 0 | LUCKY VICTOR | 9.0% | 11.07 | 13 |
| 5 | 0 | SPEED FORCE | 7.6% | 13.09 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | ALL YOU KNOW | 5.4% | 18.56 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | CROWN AVENUE | 5.4% | 18.68 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | LITTLE PLAYER | 4.9% | 20.21 | 11 |
| 9 | 0 | SHANGHAI GRACE | 4.7% | 21.31 | 8 |
| 10 | 0 | NOBLE MAN | 4.6% | 21.80 | 7 |
| 11 | 0 | PRESIDENT STAR | 4.1% | 24.62 | 10 |
| 12 | 0 | PRIME STAR | 3.7% | 26.90 | 12 |
| 13 | 0 | SMART COUSIN | 2.7% | 36.52 | 14 |
| 14 | 0 | RUN DES RUN | 2.5% | 40.58 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 135.5
PLACE
7 28.5
11 54.5
13 40.5
QUINELLA
11,13 1,277.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,11 200.5
7,13 152
11,13 394.5
FORECAST
11,13 2,960
TIERCE
11,13,7 23,545
TRIO
7,11,13 2,804
FIRST 4
3,7,11,13 4,635
QUARTET
11,13,7,3 141,367
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
5,9,11/7,11,13 130,851
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 21.5
3RD DOUBLE
5/11 1,424.5
5/13 63.5