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Sha Tin · 2021-12-29 · 20:51

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-29 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. RUN DES RUN, ridden by R Maia and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-1/4, with SPEED FORCE second and EL VALIENTE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite CROWN AVENUE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.38.93
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 RUN DES RUN Closed strongly TT 1.38.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · T P Yung 14 13.0 1-1/4
2 13 SPEED FORCE Closed strongly B M F Poon · C W Chang 8 12.0 1-1/4
3 7 EL VALIENTE Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C Fownes 13 7.8 1-1/2
4 3 LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly PC J Moreira · L Ho 5 5.6 2
5 2 CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly B B Shinn · C H Yip 4 4.5 2-1/4
6 1 ALL YOU KNOW Closed strongly B/H/TT C L Chau · R Gibson 6 21.0 2-1/2
7 12 NOBLE MAN B/TT V Borges · K L Man 7 10.0 2-3/4
8 14 SHANGHAI GRACE B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 12 17.0 4-3/4
9 4 TURF BRILLIANT Closed strongly B K C Leung · W Y So 9 14.0 7-1/4
10 8 PRESIDENT STAR Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum 11 62.0 7-1/2
11 5 LITTLE PLAYER B- L Ferraris · D A Hayes 3 28.0 8
12 10 PRIME STAR B/TT H T Mo · A T Millard 1 35.0 8-3/4
13 9 LUCKY VICTOR Led early B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 2 5.9 10-1/4
14 6 SMART COUSIN H Bentley · C H Yip 10 59.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUN DES RUN—2. SPEED FORCE+1.25L3. EL VALIENTE+1.5L4. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+2L5. CROWN AVENUE+2.25L6. ALL YOU KNOW+2.5L7. NOBLE MAN+2.75L8. SHANGHAI GRACE+4.75L9. TURF BRILLIANT+7.25L10. PRESIDENT STAR+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LONDON LUCKYSTAR (21.7%) finished 4th — the winner RUN DES RUN was rated #14. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 21.7% 4.60 4
2 7 EL VALIENTE 11.8% 8.44 3
3 4 TURF BRILLIANT 11.8% 8.47 9
4 9 LUCKY VICTOR 9.0% 11.07 13
5 13 SPEED FORCE 7.6% 13.09 2
6 1 ALL YOU KNOW 5.4% 18.56 6
7 2 CROWN AVENUE 5.4% 18.68 5
8 5 LITTLE PLAYER 4.9% 20.21 11
9 14 SHANGHAI GRACE 4.7% 21.31 8
10 12 NOBLE MAN 4.6% 21.80 7
11 8 PRESIDENT STAR 4.1% 24.62 10
12 10 PRIME STAR 3.7% 26.90 12
13 6 SMART COUSIN 2.7% 36.52 14
14 11 RUN DES RUN 2.5% 40.58 1
LONDON LUCKYSTAREL VALIENTETURF BRILLIANTLUCKY VICTORSPEED FORCEALL YOU KNOWCROWN AVENUELITTLE PLAYERSHANGHAI GRACENOBLE MANPRESIDENT STARPRIME STARSMART COUSINRUN DES RUN — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 135.5

PLACE

7 28.5

11 54.5

13 40.5

QUINELLA

11,13 1,277.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,11 200.5

7,13 152

11,13 394.5

FORECAST

11,13 2,960

TIERCE

11,13,7 23,545

TRIO

7,11,13 2,804

FIRST 4

3,7,11,13 4,635

QUARTET

11,13,7,3 141,367

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,9,11/7,11,13 130,851

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 21.5

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE

5/11 1,424.5

5/13 63.5

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