Sha Tin · 2021-12-29 · 21:21
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-29 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ALL JOYFUL, ridden by B Shinn and trained by T P Yung, won by 2, with WINMORE STAR second and BLOTTING PAPER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite SUPER WIN DRAGON finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | ALL JOYFUL Closed strongly B 1.38.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 5 | 9.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | WINMORE STAR Closed strongly B- R Maia · K L Man | R Maia | K L Man | 2 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | BLOTTING PAPER B-/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson | A Hamelin | R Gibson | 7 | 25.0 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | SUPER WIN DRAGON Closed strongly TT J Moreira · W Y So | J Moreira | W Y So | 12 | 2.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 14 | SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly XB M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 13 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | CHIRON Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 14 | 21.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 13 | JADE THEATRE B-/H1 H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 1 | 13.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | SUNNY DELIGHT B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 8 | 18.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | SOLAR POWER Led early K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 3 | 8.2 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | DRAGON BABY E/PC/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 9 | 12.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | RUN THE TABLE H M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 6 | 10.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | FASTER Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 11 | 116.0 | 21-3/4 |
| 13 | 3 | SHINY ONE XB L Ferraris · P F Yiu | L Ferraris | P F Yiu | 4 | 48.0 | 21-3/4 |
| 14 | 7 | DRAGON COMMANDER B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 10 | 31.0 | 24 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SUPER WIN DRAGON | 21.9% | 4.58 | 4 |
| 2 | 11 | RUN THE TABLE | 14.0% | 7.13 | 11 |
| 3 | 1 | SOLAR POWER | 12.9% | 7.73 | 9 |
| 4 | 4 | ALL JOYFUL | 7.5% | 13.30 | 1 |
| 5 | 8 | DRAGON BABY | 6.8% | 14.64 | 10 |
| 6 | 12 | CHIRON | 6.5% | 15.48 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | SUNNY DELIGHT | 6.3% | 15.90 | 8 |
| 8 | 14 | SUN OF MAKFI | 5.8% | 17.21 | 5 |
| 9 | 13 | JADE THEATRE | 4.9% | 20.27 | 7 |
| 10 | 3 | SHINY ONE | 4.0% | 25.01 | 13 |
| 11 | 10 | BLOTTING PAPER | 3.5% | 28.76 | 3 |
| 12 | 7 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 2.7% | 36.62 | 14 |
| 13 | 9 | WINMORE STAR | 2.4% | 41.56 | 2 |
| 14 | 6 | FASTER | 0.7% | 136.68 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 90
PLACE
4 31
9 37.5
10 61.5
QUINELLA
4,9 431
QUINELLA PLACE
4,9 149
4,10 266
9,10 347.5
FORECAST
4,9 1,345
TIERCE
4,9,10 15,480
TRIO
4,9,10 2,018
FIRST 4
2,4,9,10 2,786
QUARTET
4,9,10,2 95,136
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 35
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
11/4 1,750.5
11/9 353.5