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Sha Tin · 2021-12-29 · 22:23

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.37.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TURIN REDSTAR Closed strongly B/TT 1.37.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · D J Whyte 7 15.0 2-1/4
2 0 PARTY EVERYDAY Closed strongly H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 10 31.0 2-1/4
3 0 KING'S CAPITAL Closed strongly A Hamelin · D A Hayes 9 66.0 2-1/4
4 0 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E/P1 V Borges · J Size 8 17.0 2-3/4
5 0 SKYEY SUPREME B/TT C Wong · K W Lui 2 15.0 2-3/4
6 0 MAGNIFICENT H N Wong · K H Ting 4 35.0 3
7 0 ULTRA EXPRESS TT J Moreira · A T Millard 1 2.4 3-1/2
8 0 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly B/XB M L Yeung · C W Chang 11 32.0 5-1/2
9 0 CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT R Maia · K W Lui 6 4.4 5-1/2
10 0 INFINITE POWER Led early CP M F Poon · F C Lor 12 9.4 6-1/2
11 0 READY PLAYER ONE TT K Teetan · C S Shum 5 6.0 9-1/2
12 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE H/PC/TT H T Mo · R Gibson 3 70.0 15

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-29 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. TURIN REDSTAR, ridden by H Bentley and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2-1/4, with PARTY EVERYDAY second and KING'S CAPITAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite ULTRA EXPRESS finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TURIN REDSTAR—2. PARTY EVERYDAY+2.25L3. KING'S CAPITAL+2.25L4. BEAUTY FIT+2.75L5. SKYEY SUPREME+2.75L6. MAGNIFICENT+3L7. ULTRA EXPRESS+3.5L8. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+5.5L9. CHANCHENG PRINCE+5.5L10. INFINITE POWER+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ULTRA EXPRESS (45.8%) finished 7th — the winner TURIN REDSTAR was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ULTRA EXPRESS 45.8% 2.19 7
2 0 INFINITE POWER 8.4% 11.88 10
3 0 CHANCHENG PRINCE 7.6% 13.17 9
4 0 READY PLAYER ONE 7.5% 13.33 11
5 0 PARTY EVERYDAY 6.3% 15.91 2
6 0 TURIN REDSTAR 4.3% 23.18 1
7 0 BEAUTY FIT 4.1% 24.30 4
8 0 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 4.0% 24.79 8
9 0 KING'S CAPITAL 3.8% 26.26 3
10 0 SKYEY SUPREME 3.5% 28.93 5
11 0 MAGNIFICENT 2.5% 39.83 6
12 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE 2.2% 45.26 12
ULTRA EXPRESSINFINITE POWERCHANCHENG PRINCEREADY PLAYER ONEPARTY EVERYDAYTURIN REDSTAR — wonBEAUTY FITRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINEKING'S CAPITALSKYEY SUPREMEMAGNIFICENTRIGHT HONOURABLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 150

PLACE

5 42.5

8 123.5

10 58.5

QUINELLA

5,10 1,540

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 918.5

5,10 340.5

8,10 1,079

FORECAST

5,10 2,924

TIERCE

5,10,8 82,747

TRIO

5,8,10 9,884

FIRST 4

2,5,8,10 20,548

QUARTET

5,10,8,2 453,093

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 43.5

6TH DOUBLE

3/5 875

3/10 242