Sha Tin · 2021-12-29 · 20:21
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-29 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. AMAZING TEENS, ridden by B Shinn and trained by J Size, won by 1-3/4, with LEGION OF MERIT second and YES WE CAN third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | AMAZING TEENS Wire to wire H/TT 1.48.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 1 | 3.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 11 | LEGION OF MERIT Closed strongly B/TT1 V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 5 | 9.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | YES WE CAN Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 8 | 5.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | TOYCOON CP J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 3 | 3.8 | 4 |
| 5 | 2 | SUPER FAST XB/TT K H Chan · K W Lui | K H Chan | K W Lui | 2 | 6.3 | 5 |
| 6 | 3 | CHAMPION PAL Closed strongly B C L Chau · P O'Sullivan | C L Chau | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 25.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | STAR OF GLORY Closed strongly P A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 10 | 37.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | GREAT TREASURE M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 6 | 23.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 9.6 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | SHENRON CP-/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 9 | 30.0 | 9-1/2 |
| — | 1 | DOUBLE TAKE L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | TOYCOON | 34.4% | 2.91 | 4 |
| 2 | 2 | SUPER FAST | 13.8% | 7.26 | 5 |
| 3 | 5 | AMAZING TEENS | 13.6% | 7.33 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER | 9.6% | 10.44 | 9 |
| 5 | 9 | YES WE CAN | 9.5% | 10.58 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | CHAMPION PAL | 5.7% | 17.68 | 6 |
| 7 | 11 | LEGION OF MERIT | 4.8% | 20.76 | 2 |
| 8 | 6 | GREAT TREASURE | 4.7% | 21.32 | 8 |
| 9 | 10 | SHENRON | 2.1% | 48.34 | 10 |
| 10 | 8 | STAR OF GLORY | 2.0% | 51.11 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 38
PLACE
5 16
9 17.5
11 30
QUINELLA
5,11 185
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 47
5,11 66
9,11 87.5
FORECAST
5,11 464
TIERCE
5,11,9 1,743
TRIO
5,9,11 267
FIRST 4
5,7,9,11 230
QUARTET
5,11,9,7 6,421
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
2/5 289
2/11 97
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 19