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Happy Valley · 2022-01-19 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TOTAL POWER Closed strongly CP-/B2 1.39.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · D J Hall 8 6.1 2-3/4
2 0 SUNNY DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 11 26.0 2-3/4
3 0 LOYAL BABY Closed strongly Z Purton · F C Lor 6 2.6 3
4 0 AMAZING NEWS Closed strongly XB A Badel · C Fownes 3 7.1 3-1/2
5 0 EEVEE Closed strongly B V Borges · D A Hayes 4 8.8 5
6 0 JOLLY HONOUR Closed strongly M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 7 21.0 6
7 0 RUN THE TABLE H H Bentley · K W Lui 1 7.7 6-1/2
8 0 MANNA FROM HEAVEN XB-/B1 M Chadwick · K L Man 12 13.0 8-1/4
9 0 FULL POWER B/XB R Maia · R Gibson 2 57.0 11-3/4
10 0 MISSION BRAVO B/H1/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 5 42.0 14-1/4
11 0 TRAVEL GLORY Led early B M F Poon · Y S Tsui 10 13.0 14-1/2
12 0 FAIRY FLOSS CP/H/XB1/TT C Y Ho · P O'Sullivan 9 52.0 14-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-19 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. TOTAL POWER, ridden by J Moreira and trained by D J Hall, won by 2-3/4, with SUNNY DELIGHT second and LOYAL BABY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite LOYAL BABY finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOTAL POWER—2. SUNNY DELIGHT+2.75L3. LOYAL BABY+3L4. AMAZING NEWS+3.5L5. EEVEE+5L6. JOLLY HONOUR+6L7. RUN THE TABLE+6.5L8. MANNA FROM HEAVEN+8.25L9. FULL POWER+11.75L10. MISSION BRAVO+14.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LOYAL BABY (25.9%) finished 3rd — the winner TOTAL POWER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 LOYAL BABY 25.9% 3.86 3
2 0 TOTAL POWER 16.5% 6.07 1
3 0 RUN THE TABLE 11.5% 8.67 7
4 0 AMAZING NEWS 10.5% 9.55 4
5 0 EEVEE 8.2% 12.13 5
6 0 TRAVEL GLORY 6.6% 15.22 11
7 0 SUNNY DELIGHT 6.1% 16.30 2
8 0 MANNA FROM HEAVEN 5.5% 18.34 8
9 0 JOLLY HONOUR 3.7% 27.16 6
10 0 FAIRY FLOSS 2.7% 37.30 12
11 0 MISSION BRAVO 1.8% 56.86 10
12 0 FULL POWER 1.1% 90.96 9
LOYAL BABYTOTAL POWER — wonRUN THE TABLEAMAZING NEWSEEVEETRAVEL GLORYSUNNY DELIGHTMANNA FROM HEAVENJOLLY HONOURFAIRY FLOSSMISSION BRAVOFULL POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 61.5

PLACE

1 13.5

2 18

7 69.5

QUINELLA

2,7 742

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 31

1,7 146.5

2,7 234

FORECAST

2,7 1,438

TIERCE

2,7,1 4,545

TRIO

1,2,7 593

FIRST 4

1,2,4,7 776

QUARTET

2,7,1,4 25,717

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 35

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE

10/2 598.5

10/7 452.5