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Happy Valley · 2022-01-19 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-19 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. TOTAL POWER, ridden by J Moreira and trained by D J Hall, won by 2-3/4, with SUNNY DELIGHT second and LOYAL BABY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite LOYAL BABY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.39.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 TOTAL POWER Closed strongly CP-/B2 1.39.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · D J Hall 8 6.1 2-3/4
2 7 SUNNY DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 11 26.0 2-3/4
3 1 LOYAL BABY Closed strongly Z Purton · F C Lor 6 2.6 3
4 4 AMAZING NEWS Closed strongly XB A Badel · C Fownes 3 7.1 3-1/2
5 8 EEVEE Closed strongly B V Borges · D A Hayes 4 8.8 5
6 5 JOLLY HONOUR Closed strongly M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 7 21.0 6
7 10 RUN THE TABLE H H Bentley · K W Lui 1 7.7 6-1/2
8 11 MANNA FROM HEAVEN XB-/B1 M Chadwick · K L Man 12 13.0 8-1/4
9 9 FULL POWER B/XB R Maia · R Gibson 2 57.0 11-3/4
10 3 MISSION BRAVO B/H1/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 5 42.0 14-1/4
11 12 TRAVEL GLORY Led early B M F Poon · Y S Tsui 10 13.0 14-1/2
12 6 FAIRY FLOSS CP/H/XB1/TT C Y Ho · P O'Sullivan 9 52.0 14-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOTAL POWER2. SUNNY DELIGHT+2.75L3. LOYAL BABY+3L4. AMAZING NEWS+3.5L5. EEVEE+5L6. JOLLY HONOUR+6L7. RUN THE TABLE+6.5L8. MANNA FROM HEAVEN+8.25L9. FULL POWER+11.75L10. MISSION BRAVO+14.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LOYAL BABY (25.9%) finished 3rd — the winner TOTAL POWER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 LOYAL BABY 25.9% 3.86 3
2 2 TOTAL POWER 16.5% 6.07 1
3 10 RUN THE TABLE 11.5% 8.67 7
4 4 AMAZING NEWS 10.5% 9.55 4
5 8 EEVEE 8.2% 12.13 5
6 12 TRAVEL GLORY 6.6% 15.22 11
7 7 SUNNY DELIGHT 6.1% 16.30 2
8 11 MANNA FROM HEAVEN 5.5% 18.34 8
9 5 JOLLY HONOUR 3.7% 27.16 6
10 6 FAIRY FLOSS 2.7% 37.30 12
11 3 MISSION BRAVO 1.8% 56.86 10
12 9 FULL POWER 1.1% 90.96 9
LOYAL BABYTOTAL POWER — wonRUN THE TABLEAMAZING NEWSEEVEETRAVEL GLORYSUNNY DELIGHTMANNA FROM HEAVENJOLLY HONOURFAIRY FLOSSMISSION BRAVOFULL POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 61.5

PLACE

1 13.5

2 18

7 69.5

QUINELLA

2,7 742

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 31

1,7 146.5

2,7 234

FORECAST

2,7 1,438

TIERCE

2,7,1 4,545

TRIO

1,2,7 593

FIRST 4

1,2,4,7 776

QUARTET

2,7,1,4 25,717

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 35

3RD DOUBLE

10/2 598.5

10/7 452.5