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Happy Valley · 2022-01-19 · 22:18

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course C 11 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-19 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. GORYTUS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C S Shum, won by 2, with MEANINGFUL STAR second and AMAZING ONE PLUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite ZONE D finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.39.49
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 GORYTUS Closed strongly XB/TT 1.39.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C S Shum 10 11.0 2
2 7 MEANINGFUL STAR Closed strongly B H Bentley · K W Lui 8 17.0 2
3 1 AMAZING ONE PLUS Closed strongly P/XB/TT Z Purton · T P Yung 6 7.0 2
4 11 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT J Moreira · J Size 4 2.2 2
5 5 HALL OF CHAMP Led early TT B Shinn · C Fownes 3 4.7 2-1/2
6 3 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT V/TT A Badel · F C Lor 7 10.0 3-1/4
7 9 READY PLAYER ONE TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 9 25.0 3-3/4
8 8 ENSURED Closed strongly L Ferraris · D J Hall 2 95.0 4
9 10 SACRED IBIS XB L Hewitson · A T Millard 1 18.0 5
10 4 HELENE WISDOM STAR B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 5 25.0 7-1/2
11 2 CONQUEROR B/TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes 11 37.0 16-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GORYTUS2. MEANINGFUL STAR+2L3. AMAZING ONE PLUS+2L4. ZONE D+2L5. HALL OF CHAMP+2.5L6. EVERYONE'S DELIGHT+3.25L7. READY PLAYER ONE+3.75L8. ENSURED+4L9. SACRED IBIS+5L10. HELENE WISDOM STAR+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick AMAZING ONE PLUS (17.8%) finished 3rd — the winner GORYTUS was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 AMAZING ONE PLUS 17.8% 5.62 3
2 11 ZONE D 16.4% 6.11 4
3 3 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT 13.9% 7.22 6
4 7 MEANINGFUL STAR 13.4% 7.46 2
5 5 HALL OF CHAMP 8.3% 12.08 5
6 6 GORYTUS 7.5% 13.41 1
7 10 SACRED IBIS 5.7% 17.42 9
8 4 HELENE WISDOM STAR 5.4% 18.68 10
9 2 CONQUEROR 5.2% 19.23 11
10 9 READY PLAYER ONE 4.9% 20.23 7
11 8 ENSURED 1.6% 62.50 8
AMAZING ONE PLUSZONE DEVERYONE'S DELIGHTMEANINGFUL STARHALL OF CHAMPGORYTUS — wonSACRED IBISHELENE WISDOM STARCONQUERORREADY PLAYER ONEENSURED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 112

PLACE

1 19

6 26.5

7 44.5

QUINELLA

6,7 920

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 76.5

1,7 185.5

6,7 227

FORECAST

6,7 1,713

TIERCE

6,7,1 8,784

TRIO

1,6,7 1,197

FIRST 4

1,6,7,11 475

QUARTET

6,7,1,11 17,556

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 25.5

A3

7TH DOUBLE

1/6 277.5

1/7 154