Happy Valley · 2022-01-19 · 20:46
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-01-19 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SHADOW RUNNER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by N, with LUCKY ARCHANGEL second and LORIZ third. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | SHADOW RUNNER TT 1.09.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 3.6 | N |
| 2 | 2 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 5 | 4.0 | N |
| 3 | 10 | LORIZ A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 11 | 16.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS V M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 2 | 21.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | MY INTELLIGENT M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 12 | 23.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | HERCULES B/XB/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 8 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | VAMOS Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 1 | 6.9 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | SUGAR SUGAR B1/H1/TT1 B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 10 | 19.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | THUNDERSTRIKE B/H J Moreira · D J Whyte | J Moreira | D J Whyte | 6 | 7.1 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | FORTUNE CARRIER B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 9 | 17.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | BEAUTY AMIGO B/TT K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 4 | 51.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | AHEAD A HEAD B M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 7 | 25.0 | 10-1/4 |
| — | 0 | SHOWINA Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | THUNDERSTRIKE | 25.4% | 3.93 | 9 |
| 2 | 2 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 18.0% | 5.55 | 2 |
| 3 | 11 | SHADOW RUNNER | 16.1% | 6.21 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | HERCULES | 8.3% | 12.08 | 6 |
| 5 | 12 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS | 6.1% | 16.50 | 4 |
| 6 | 4 | FORTUNE CARRIER | 6.0% | 16.56 | 10 |
| 7 | 7 | AHEAD A HEAD | 5.0% | 20.00 | 12 |
| 8 | 9 | MY INTELLIGENT | 3.9% | 25.89 | 5 |
| 9 | 1 | VAMOS | 3.3% | 30.03 | 7 |
| 10 | 5 | SUGAR SUGAR | 3.0% | 33.00 | 8 |
| 11 | 10 | LORIZ | 2.6% | 39.03 | 3 |
| 12 | 8 | BEAUTY AMIGO | 2.3% | 43.81 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 36.5
PLACE
2 15.5
10 48.5
11 14.5
QUINELLA
2,11 69.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,10 101.5
2,11 30
10,11 109.5
FORECAST
11,2 147
TIERCE
11,2,10 1,649
TRIO
2,10,11 446
FIRST 4
2,10,11,12 1,643
QUARTET
11,2,10,12 20,945
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,7/2,10,11 33,207
3 PICK 1
A1 19
A2 —
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
2/2 37
2/11 274.5