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Happy Valley · 2022-02-23 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-23 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. PACKING AWARD, ridden by K Teetan and trained by L Ho, won by N, with SUPER RED DRAGON second and SPARKY STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite EEVEE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.39.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 PACKING AWARD Closed strongly H2 1.39.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · L Ho 9 5.8 N
2 5 SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT B Shinn · W Y So 1 8.3 N
3 10 SPARKY STAR Closed strongly C L Chau · T P Yung 8 5.5 3/4
4 7 EEVEE Closed strongly B C Y Ho · D A Hayes 3 3.6 1-1/4
5 6 OUR CREED Led early V L Ferraris · K H Ting 5 65.0 1-3/4
6 12 LOYAL AMBITION Closed strongly H/TT M F Poon · C Fownes 7 109.0 2
7 11 ERNEST FEELING B/TT A Badel · R Gibson 2 7.1 2-1/2
8 4 SMILING CITY SR H Bentley · D J Whyte 6 12.0 2-1/2
9 1 V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly B/H/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 12 25.0 3
10 3 WIN WIN FIGHTER D Moor · K W Lui 10 37.0 3-1/2
11 8 JOLLY HONOUR B2/TT2 K C Leung · Y S Tsui 11 27.0 4-1/4
12 9 MAXIMIZE HEART B V Borges · C H Yip 4 8.6 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PACKING AWARD2. SUPER RED DRAGON+0.05L3. SPARKY STAR+0.75L4. EEVEE+1.25L5. OUR CREED+1.75L6. LOYAL AMBITION+2L7. ERNEST FEELING+2.5L8. SMILING CITY+2.5L9. V CHEVALIERS+3L10. WIN WIN FIGHTER+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick EEVEE (20.5%) finished 4th — the winner PACKING AWARD was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 EEVEE 20.5% 4.87 4
2 9 MAXIMIZE HEART 15.0% 6.66 12
3 11 ERNEST FEELING 11.5% 8.70 7
4 10 SPARKY STAR 11.1% 8.98 3
5 2 PACKING AWARD 10.5% 9.54 1
6 5 SUPER RED DRAGON 7.3% 13.68 2
7 4 SMILING CITY 6.2% 16.02 8
8 1 V CHEVALIERS 6.1% 16.52 9
9 8 JOLLY HONOUR 5.1% 19.66 11
10 3 WIN WIN FIGHTER 4.7% 21.14 10
11 6 OUR CREED 1.0% 97.20 5
12 12 LOYAL AMBITION 0.9% 111.31 6
EEVEEMAXIMIZE HEARTERNEST FEELINGSPARKY STARPACKING AWARD — wonSUPER RED DRAGONSMILING CITYV CHEVALIERSJOLLY HONOURWIN WIN FIGHTEROUR CREEDLOYAL AMBITION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 58.5

PLACE

2 18

5 29

10 26

QUINELLA

2,5 440

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 143.5

2,10 91

5,10 99.5

FORECAST

2,5 829

TIERCE

2,5,10 6,202

TRIO

2,5,10 868

FIRST 4

2,5,7,10 599

QUARTET

2,5,10,7 18,480

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/2 213

3/5 55.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 22.5