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Happy Valley · 2022-02-23 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-02-23 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SCOTCH TYCOON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with SEE U AGAIN second and OVERSUBSCRIBED third. Victory came as the 4.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.57.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SCOTCH TYCOON H 0.57.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 8 4.3 N
2 7 SEE U AGAIN TT- D Moor · C S Shum 4 13.0 N
3 10 OVERSUBSCRIBED XB B Shinn · D J Hall 10 52.0 1/2
4 3 SAVVY DELIGHT P1/TT K Teetan · J Size 9 9.7 3/4
5 9 PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN H/SR/TT A Badel · D J Whyte 11 5.1 1-1/4
6 2 CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 3 5.7 2
7 11 SUPER COMMANDER B/TT K C Leung · W Y So 1 18.0 2-3/4
8 8 TSUEN WAN GLORY B C L Chau · K L Man 12 114.0 3
9 6 HAPPY GOOD GUYS B M Chadwick · P F Yiu 7 6.0 3-1/4
10 5 GANG OF BROTHERS C Y Ho · P O'Sullivan 5 13.0 3-3/4
11 12 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN V H T Mo · L Ho 2 14.0 4-3/4
12 4 BULB PRINCE SR1 L Hewitson · C H Yip 6 25.0 5-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SCOTCH TYCOON2. SEE U AGAIN+0.05L3. OVERSUBSCRIBED+0.5L4. SAVVY DELIGHT+0.75L5. PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN+1.25L6. CIRCUIT SEVEN+2L7. SUPER COMMANDER+2.75L8. TSUEN WAN GLORY+3L9. HAPPY GOOD GUYS+3.25L10. GANG OF BROTHERS+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SCOTCH TYCOON (19.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SCOTCH TYCOON 19.9% 5.02 1
2 2 CIRCUIT SEVEN 14.4% 6.96 6
3 3 SAVVY DELIGHT 13.3% 7.50 4
4 9 PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN 10.8% 9.26 5
5 12 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN 10.0% 9.99 11
6 6 HAPPY GOOD GUYS 8.2% 12.13 9
7 5 GANG OF BROTHERS 7.2% 13.93 10
8 7 SEE U AGAIN 7.0% 14.26 2
9 11 SUPER COMMANDER 5.2% 19.14 7
10 10 OVERSUBSCRIBED 1.4% 70.96 3
11 8 TSUEN WAN GLORY 1.3% 74.71 8
12 4 BULB PRINCE 1.2% 86.88 12
SCOTCH TYCOON — wonCIRCUIT SEVENSAVVY DELIGHTPRETTY QUEEN PRAWNCHUNGHWA JINGSHENHAPPY GOOD GUYSGANG OF BROTHERSSEE U AGAINSUPER COMMANDEROVERSUBSCRIBEDTSUEN WAN GLORYBULB PRINCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 43

PLACE

1 19

7 40

10 109.5

QUINELLA

1,7 306.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 110

1,10 424.5

7,10 992.5

FORECAST

1,7 542

TIERCE

1,7,10 13,740

TRIO

1,7,10 4,810

FIRST 4

1,3,7,10 5,952

QUARTET

1,7,10,3 107,399

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,8/1,7,10 1,538,591

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 19.5

4TH DOUBLE

3/1 611.5

3/7 235.5