Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2022-02-27 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 2000m Course B 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-27 was Class 5 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. FORTUNE PATROL, ridden by R Maia and trained by A T Millard, won by HD, with CROWN AVENUE second and DAILY CHARM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite DAILY CHARM finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 2.04.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB 2.04.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · A T Millard 4 7.9 HD
2 8 CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly B Shinn · C H Yip 5 11.0 HD
3 2 DAILY CHARM B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 9 3.3 N
4 1 STAR OF GLORY Closed strongly P A Hamelin · C W Chang 11 44.0 1
5 14 SMILING FACE SR/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 2 3.9 1-3/4
6 10 GREAT TIMES Closed strongly B L Hewitson · D J Hall 7 27.0 2
7 4 TURF BRILLIANT Closed strongly B A Badel · W Y So 8 28.0 2-3/4
8 3 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly TT D Moor · K W Lui 12 38.0 3
9 12 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE Closed strongly B M L Yeung · K H Ting 13 27.0 4-3/4
10 7 SKY GEM Closed strongly P-/B2 J Moreira · C Fownes 14 10.0 5
11 11 FORTUNE TRIPLE B1 C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 6 11.0 5-1/2
12 13 AEROSONIC H/PC/XB1/TT- H T Mo · C W Chang 10 31.0 9-3/4
13 5 LONDON LUCKYSTAR PC K C Leung · L Ho 1 18.0 11-3/4
14 6 ALEE KING PRAWN Led early B/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 3 41.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FORTUNE PATROL2. CROWN AVENUE+0.2L3. DAILY CHARM+0.05L4. STAR OF GLORY+1L5. SMILING FACE+1.75L6. GREAT TIMES+2L7. TURF BRILLIANT+2.75L8. GO GO SIXTEEN+3L9. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+4.75L10. SKY GEM+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick DAILY CHARM (23.2%) finished 3rd — the winner FORTUNE PATROL was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 DAILY CHARM 23.2% 4.31 3
2 7 SKY GEM 10.4% 9.59 10
3 14 SMILING FACE 9.0% 11.12 5
4 4 TURF BRILLIANT 8.5% 11.83 7
5 5 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 8.2% 12.24 13
6 9 FORTUNE PATROL 8.1% 12.42 1
7 3 GO GO SIXTEEN 6.3% 15.93 8
8 8 CROWN AVENUE 5.1% 19.42 2
9 12 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 4.5% 22.09 9
10 11 FORTUNE TRIPLE 4.4% 22.80 11
11 1 STAR OF GLORY 4.4% 22.83 4
12 6 ALEE KING PRAWN 3.5% 28.72 14
13 13 AEROSONIC 2.5% 39.95 12
14 10 GREAT TIMES 2.0% 50.11 6
DAILY CHARMSKY GEMSMILING FACETURF BRILLIANTLONDON LUCKYSTARFORTUNE PATROL — wonGO GO SIXTEENCROWN AVENUEWEALTHY EMPLOYEEFORTUNE TRIPLESTAR OF GLORYALEE KING PRAWNAEROSONICGREAT TIMES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 79.5

PLACE

2 14.5

8 33

9 24

QUINELLA

8,9 424

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 76.5

2,9 54.5

8,9 135.5

FORECAST

9,8 826

TIERCE

9,8,2 3,855

TRIO

2,8,9 373

FIRST 4

1,2,8,9 4,473

QUARTET

9,8,2,1 110,526

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 32.5