Sha Tin · 2022-02-27 · 16:06

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.62

Pos	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	GOLDEN EMPIRE Closed strongly 1.22.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · K W Lui	R Maia	K W Lui	1	133 lb	5.7	NOSE
2	ORIENTAL SMOKE Closed strongly B Z Purton · D A Hayes	Z Purton	D A Hayes	9	132 lb	3.2	NOSE
3	SOLAR PARTNER Led early J Moreira · P F Yiu	J Moreira	P F Yiu	12	128 lb	4.4	3/4
4	DURHAM STAR Closed strongly XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	11	121 lb	9.2	1-1/2
5	PLIKCLONE Closed strongly C L Chau · D J Hall	C L Chau	D J Hall	14	118 lb	11.0	2-1/2
6	VUKAN Closed strongly XB/B1 M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan	M Chadwick	P O'Sullivan	4	121 lb	11.0	2-1/2
7	COUNTRY BOY H/P/TT A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	7	133 lb	10.0	2-1/2
8	CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO Closed strongly V Borges · K L Man	V Borges	K L Man	10	119 lb	158.0	2-3/4
9	MR ALDAN Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz	L Ferraris	A S Cruz	8	126 lb	46.0	3-1/2
10	SMART FOLKS H W Lai · C W Chang	H W Lai	C W Chang	5	115 lb	80.0	4
11	FIGHTING STAR XB/TT K H Chan · C H Yip	K H Chan	C H Yip	3	124 lb	55.0	5-3/4
12	GREEN ENVY V/TT K Teetan · C Fownes	K Teetan	C Fownes	13	128 lb	52.0	7
13	JADE PHOENIX B/TT1 M F Poon · F C Lor	M F Poon	F C Lor	2	127 lb	30.0	10
—	NORDIC WARRIOR B B Shinn · R Gibson	B Shinn	R Gibson	6	123 lb	39.0	—

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-27 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GOLDEN EMPIRE, ridden by R Maia and trained by K W Lui, won by NOSE, with ORIENTAL SMOKE second and SOLAR PARTNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite ORIENTAL SMOKE finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick ORIENTAL SMOKE (26.3%) finished 2nd — the winner GOLDEN EMPIRE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	ORIENTAL SMOKE	26.3%	3.80	2	3.2
2	GOLDEN EMPIRE	17.8%	5.61	1	5.7
3	SOLAR PARTNER	17.2%	5.81	3	4.4
4	COUNTRY BOY	8.7%	11.52	7	10.0
5	VUKAN	6.2%	16.18	6	11.0
6	JADE PHOENIX	5.3%	18.71	13	30.0
7	PLIKCLONE	4.5%	22.25	5	11.0
8	MR ALDAN	3.6%	27.91	9	46.0
9	DURHAM STAR	3.1%	32.56	4	9.2
10	FIGHTING STAR	2.7%	37.10	11	55.0
11	SMART FOLKS	1.9%	52.06	10	80.0
12	GREEN ENVY	1.7%	57.36	12	52.0
13	CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO	0.9%	106.06	8	158.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 57.5

PLACE

2 20

3 15

7 20

QUINELLA

2,3 118.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 46.5

2,7 62.5

3,7 34.5

FORECAST

2,3 271

TIERCE

2,3,7 1,224

TRIO

2,3,7 180

FIRST 4

2,3,7,10 188

QUARTET

2,3,7,10 5,262

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,6,7/2,3,7 32,594

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 27

6TH DOUBLE

7/2 796

7/3 99

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