Sha Tin · 2022-02-27 · 16:06

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B 13 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-27 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GOLDEN EMPIRE, ridden by R Maia and trained by K W Lui, won by NOSE, with ORIENTAL SMOKE second and SOLAR PARTNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite ORIENTAL SMOKE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.22.62

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	GOLDEN EMPIRE Closed strongly 1.22.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · K W Lui	R Maia	K W Lui	1	133 lb	5.7	NOSE
2	3	ORIENTAL SMOKE Closed strongly B Z Purton · D A Hayes	Z Purton	D A Hayes	9	132 lb	3.2	NOSE
3	7	SOLAR PARTNER Led early J Moreira · P F Yiu	J Moreira	P F Yiu	12	128 lb	4.4	3/4
4	10	DURHAM STAR Closed strongly XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	11	121 lb	9.2	1-1/2
5	11	PLIKCLONE Closed strongly C L Chau · D J Hall	C L Chau	D J Hall	14	118 lb	11.0	2-1/2
6	12	VUKAN Closed strongly XB/B1 M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan	M Chadwick	P O'Sullivan	4	121 lb	11.0	2-1/2
7	1	COUNTRY BOY H/P/TT A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	7	133 lb	10.0	2-1/2
8	13	CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO Closed strongly V Borges · K L Man	V Borges	K L Man	10	119 lb	158.0	2-3/4
9	8	MR ALDAN Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz	L Ferraris	A S Cruz	8	126 lb	46.0	3-1/2
10	14	SMART FOLKS H W Lai · C W Chang	H W Lai	C W Chang	5	115 lb	80.0	4
11	4	FIGHTING STAR XB/TT K H Chan · C H Yip	K H Chan	C H Yip	3	124 lb	55.0	5-3/4
12	6	GREEN ENVY V/TT K Teetan · C Fownes	K Teetan	C Fownes	13	128 lb	52.0	7
13	5	JADE PHOENIX B/TT1 M F Poon · F C Lor	M F Poon	F C Lor	2	127 lb	30.0	10
—	9	NORDIC WARRIOR B B Shinn · R Gibson	B Shinn	R Gibson	6	123 lb	39.0	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick ORIENTAL SMOKE (26.3%) finished 2nd — the winner GOLDEN EMPIRE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	ORIENTAL SMOKE	26.3%	3.80	2	3.2
2	2	GOLDEN EMPIRE	17.8%	5.61	1	5.7
3	7	SOLAR PARTNER	17.2%	5.81	3	4.4
4	1	COUNTRY BOY	8.7%	11.52	7	10.0
5	12	VUKAN	6.2%	16.18	6	11.0
6	5	JADE PHOENIX	5.3%	18.71	13	30.0
7	11	PLIKCLONE	4.5%	22.25	5	11.0
8	8	MR ALDAN	3.6%	27.91	9	46.0
9	10	DURHAM STAR	3.1%	32.56	4	9.2
10	4	FIGHTING STAR	2.7%	37.10	11	55.0
11	14	SMART FOLKS	1.9%	52.06	10	80.0
12	6	GREEN ENVY	1.7%	57.36	12	52.0
13	13	CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO	0.9%	106.06	8	158.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 57.5

PLACE

2 20

3 15

7 20

QUINELLA

2,3 118.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 46.5

2,7 62.5

3,7 34.5

FORECAST

2,3 271

TIERCE

2,3,7 1,224

TRIO

2,3,7 180

FIRST 4

2,3,7,10 188

QUARTET

2,3,7,10 5,262

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,6,7/2,3,7 32,594

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 27

A3 —

6TH DOUBLE

7/2 796

7/3 99

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