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Sha Tin · 2022-02-27 · 17:13

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SAUVESTRE Closed strongly TT 1.22.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 4 5.0 3/4
2 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT Closed strongly B M Chadwick · K L Man 11 63.0 3/4
3 0 CALIFORNIA SKY TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 12 9.8 1-1/4
4 0 SEATTLE CHOICE Closed strongly A Hamelin · A T Millard 2 46.0 1-1/2
5 0 RUNNING GLORY Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 10 2.1 1-1/2
6 0 PARTY EVERYDAY Closed strongly H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 8 25.0 2-3/4
7 0 PALACE PAL M L Yeung · T P Yung 6 32.0 3-1/4
8 0 SEASONS BLISS B C Y Ho · K H Ting 13 11.0 3-3/4
9 0 POWERFUL WINGS Closed strongly H Bentley · P F Yiu 5 86.0 4-3/4
10 0 RACING FIGHTER B/TT L Ferraris · C H Yip 3 109.0 5
11 0 HARMONY WIN WIN Led early SR/XB K H Chan · D J Whyte 1 6.4 5-1/4
12 0 REGENCY BO BO B/TT R Maia · C S Shum 7 20.0 6-1/2
13 0 ANGELS HUNTER Closed strongly L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan 14 87.0 11
14 0 THE CROWN TT D Moor · C Fownes 9 67.0 15

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-27 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SAUVESTRE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with COMPASSION SPIRIT second and CALIFORNIA SKY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite RUNNING GLORY finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SAUVESTRE—2. COMPASSION SPIRIT+0.75L3. CALIFORNIA SKY+1.25L4. SEATTLE CHOICE+1.5L5. RUNNING GLORY+1.5L6. PARTY EVERYDAY+2.75L7. PALACE PAL+3.25L8. SEASONS BLISS+3.75L9. POWERFUL WINGS+4.75L10. RACING FIGHTER+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick RUNNING GLORY (28.1%) finished 5th — the winner SAUVESTRE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 RUNNING GLORY 28.1% 3.56 5
2 0 SAUVESTRE 21.0% 4.76 1
3 0 SEASONS BLISS 11.8% 8.49 8
4 0 HARMONY WIN WIN 9.9% 10.07 11
5 0 PARTY EVERYDAY 7.3% 13.64 6
6 0 CALIFORNIA SKY 6.5% 15.40 3
7 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT 2.9% 34.27 2
8 0 SEATTLE CHOICE 2.8% 35.87 4
9 0 POWERFUL WINGS 2.7% 37.57 9
10 0 REGENCY BO BO 2.5% 39.40 12
11 0 PALACE PAL 1.5% 68.90 7
12 0 THE CROWN 1.4% 70.64 14
13 0 RACING FIGHTER 0.9% 112.32 10
14 0 ANGELS HUNTER 0.7% 137.37 13
RUNNING GLORYSAUVESTRE — wonSEASONS BLISSHARMONY WIN WINPARTY EVERYDAYCALIFORNIA SKYCOMPASSION SPIRITSEATTLE CHOICEPOWERFUL WINGSREGENCY BO BOPALACE PALTHE CROWNRACING FIGHTERANGELS HUNTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 50

PLACE

3 16.5

9 114

11 35.5

QUINELLA

3,9 1,215.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 286

3,11 89

9,11 575

FORECAST

3,9 2,376

TIERCE

3,9,11 15,194

TRIO

3,9,11 2,476

FIRST 4

1,3,9,11 21,876

QUARTET

3,9,11,1 440,654

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 15

A3 —

8TH DOUBLE

1/3 99.5

1/9 281.5