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Sha Tin · 2022-02-27 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-27 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. LIGHTNING BOLT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/4, with EVERYONE'S VICTORY second and PRIVATE ROCKET third. The 2.9 favourite EVERYONE'S VICTORY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 LIGHTNING BOLT TT- 1.08.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C S Shum 8 4.1 1-1/4
2 6 EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 3 2.9 1-1/4
3 4 PRIVATE ROCKET CP-/XB/B2 D Moor · D J Whyte 4 14.0 3-1/4
4 10 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT M F Poon · D J Hall 1 28.0 3-1/2
5 1 CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 10 16.0 3-3/4
6 7 MAGIC SUPREME CP/TT R Maia · K L Man 6 13.0 4
7 12 HANDSOME TWELVE B H T Mo · T P Yung 9 24.0 4-1/4
8 5 TRADER CP/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 2 4.5 4-1/2
9 11 PROSECCO A Badel · W Y So 5 37.0 5
10 2 SO WE JOY B-/H1/XB1/TT- L Hewitson · C W Chang 11 40.0 5-1/4
11 8 WE ARE HERO M Chadwick · K L Man 7 22.0 7-1/4
12 3 FLYING BONUS P2 K H Chan · C H Yip 12 33.0 30-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LIGHTNING BOLT2. EVERYONE'S VICTORY+1.25L3. PRIVATE ROCKET+3.25L4. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE+3.5L5. CALIFORNIA CONCORD+3.75L6. MAGIC SUPREME+4L7. HANDSOME TWELVE+4.25L8. TRADER+4.5L9. PROSECCO+5L10. SO WE JOY+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LIGHTNING BOLT (19.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 LIGHTNING BOLT 19.8% 5.04 1
2 5 TRADER 17.9% 5.60 8
3 6 EVERYONE'S VICTORY 17.7% 5.64 2
4 1 CALIFORNIA CONCORD 9.8% 10.20 5
5 7 MAGIC SUPREME 7.2% 13.93 6
6 8 WE ARE HERO 6.5% 15.31 11
7 10 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 5.0% 19.80 4
8 4 PRIVATE ROCKET 4.4% 22.63 3
9 12 HANDSOME TWELVE 4.2% 23.63 7
10 3 FLYING BONUS 2.9% 34.30 12
11 11 PROSECCO 2.9% 34.71 9
12 2 SO WE JOY 1.6% 64.27 10
LIGHTNING BOLT — wonTRADEREVERYONE'S VICTORYCALIFORNIA CONCORDMAGIC SUPREMEWE ARE HEROQUADRUPLE DOUBLEPRIVATE ROCKETHANDSOME TWELVEFLYING BONUSPROSECCOSO WE JOY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 41.5

PLACE

4 41

6 12.5

9 16

QUINELLA

6,9 66.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 83

4,9 102

6,9 29

FORECAST

9,6 140

TIERCE

9,6,4 1,172

TRIO

4,6,9 319

FIRST 4

4,6,9,10 1,225

QUARTET

9,6,4,10 14,053

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 17

A3

4TH DOUBLE

4/6 52.5

4/9 294.5