Sha Tin · 2022-05-04 · 18:46
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-04 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SPONTANEOUS, ridden by C L Chau and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 2-3/4, with CHIRON second and JAZZ STEED third. The 1.8 favourite THE BEST HERO finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SPONTANEOUS B 1.09.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · P O'Sullivan | C L Chau | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 5.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 12 | CHIRON B-/CP2/TT V Borges · D A Hayes | V Borges | D A Hayes | 10 | 29.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | JAZZ STEED V-/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 24.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | AHEAD A HEAD B H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 3 | 49.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | THE BEST HERO B H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 1 | 1.8 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | ALL IS GOOD Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 11 | 17.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | FLYING HIGH TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 8 | 7.6 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | YEE CHEONG BRAVE H/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 5 | 147.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | ANGELS HUNTER B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 30.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | FANTASY SPRING B1 K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 7 | 13.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | HAPPY MATADOR B/XB/TT R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 12 | 70.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | ARES B J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 9 | 12.0 | 15-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ALL IS GOOD | 38.8% | 2.57 | 6 |
| 2 | 7 | THE BEST HERO | 12.2% | 8.17 | 5 |
| 3 | 1 | FLYING HIGH | 10.5% | 9.55 | 7 |
| 4 | 4 | SPONTANEOUS | 9.7% | 10.28 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | ARES | 7.8% | 12.80 | 12 |
| 6 | 3 | JAZZ STEED | 5.5% | 18.33 | 3 |
| 7 | 12 | CHIRON | 5.2% | 19.17 | 2 |
| 8 | 8 | HAPPY MATADOR | 3.1% | 32.61 | 11 |
| 9 | 11 | FANTASY SPRING | 2.8% | 35.33 | 10 |
| 10 | 9 | AHEAD A HEAD | 2.0% | 48.88 | 4 |
| 11 | 2 | ANGELS HUNTER | 1.5% | 68.74 | 9 |
| 12 | 6 | YEE CHEONG BRAVE | 0.8% | 118.93 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 56.5
PLACE
3 46
4 19
12 56.5
QUINELLA
4,12 781.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 164
3,12 587
4,12 190
FORECAST
4,12 926
TIERCE
4,12,3 18,347
TRIO
3,4,12 4,396
FIRST 4
3,4,9,12 21,774
QUARTET
4,12,3,9 296,070
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 30
A3 —