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Sha Tin · 2022-05-04 · 22:18

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-04 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. KA YING MASTER, ridden by H Bentley and trained by T P Yung, won by 2, with LIGHTNING BOLT second and LIKE THAT third. The 3.1 favourite LIGHTNING BOLT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.07.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 KA YING MASTER TT 1.07.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · T P Yung 5 9.3 2
2 7 LIGHTNING BOLT K Teetan · C S Shum 7 3.1 2
3 9 LIKE THAT V J Moreira · F C Lor 12 6.7 3-1/2
4 5 CAPTAIN WIN XB1 Z Purton · D J Hall 10 5.5 4-1/4
5 8 PRIVATE ROCKET B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 4 13.0 4-3/4
6 3 HONG KONG WIN P1 V Borges · J Size 6 15.0 5-1/2
7 10 FLYING DRAGON M Chadwick · C H Yip 2 5.5 6-1/2
8 2 HARMONY N BLESSED BO/XB/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 9 17.0 7
9 11 MERCURIAL H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 3 27.0 7-3/4
10 6 SUNNY BOY B/TT C L Chau · W Y So 8 53.0 7-3/4
11 4 BAND OF BROTHERS V K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 1 56.0 8-1/4
12 12 RESOLUTE B H T Mo · A T Millard 11 88.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KA YING MASTER2. LIGHTNING BOLT+2L3. LIKE THAT+3.5L4. CAPTAIN WIN+4.25L5. PRIVATE ROCKET+4.75L6. HONG KONG WIN+5.5L7. FLYING DRAGON+6.5L8. HARMONY N BLESSED+7L9. MERCURIAL+7.75L10. SUNNY BOY+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LIGHTNING BOLT (22.0%) finished 2nd — the winner KA YING MASTER was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 LIGHTNING BOLT 22.0% 4.55 2
2 9 LIKE THAT 20.9% 4.78 3
3 5 CAPTAIN WIN 18.2% 5.49 4
4 10 FLYING DRAGON 12.5% 8.02 7
5 3 HONG KONG WIN 5.9% 17.00 6
6 2 HARMONY N BLESSED 4.7% 21.38 8
7 11 MERCURIAL 4.3% 23.35 9
8 8 PRIVATE ROCKET 3.2% 31.69 5
9 6 SUNNY BOY 2.7% 36.73 10
10 1 KA YING MASTER 2.4% 41.80 1
11 12 RESOLUTE 2.1% 48.62 12
12 4 BAND OF BROTHERS 1.3% 78.83 11
LIGHTNING BOLTLIKE THATCAPTAIN WINFLYING DRAGONHONG KONG WINHARMONY N BLESSEDMERCURIALPRIVATE ROCKETSUNNY BOYKA YING MASTER — wonRESOLUTEBAND OF BROTHERS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 93

PLACE

1 31

7 13.5

9 23

QUINELLA

1,7 134

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 58

1,9 98.5

7,9 36

FORECAST

1,7 439

TIERCE

1,7,9 1,711

TRIO

1,7,9 227

FIRST 4

1,5,7,9 311

QUARTET

1,7,9,5 9,119

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 32

7TH DOUBLE

3/1 688

3/7 30