Sha Tin · 2022-05-04 · 20:16
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-04 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BRAVE POWER, ridden by B Shinn and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with MISSION SMART second and THIS IS CHARISMA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite MISSION SMART finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BRAVE POWER Closed strongly B/TT 1.22.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · A S Cruz | B Shinn | A S Cruz | 5 | 8.5 | N |
| 2 | 7 | MISSION SMART Closed strongly CP J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 6 | 2.5 | N |
| 3 | 10 | THIS IS CHARISMA Closed strongly CP Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 4 | 6.5 | 1 |
| 4 | 13 | WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/TT V Borges · R Gibson | V Borges | R Gibson | 3 | 32.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | NOBLE MAN Led early B/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 13 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 14 | SEA MONARCH Closed strongly H-/XB-/TT- H W Lai · C W Chang | H W Lai | C W Chang | 11 | 60.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR B K Teetan · L Ho | K Teetan | L Ho | 7 | 16.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | GIVE WAY PLEASE TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes | A Hamelin | D A Hayes | 1 | 31.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | GARLIC HERO Closed strongly E/TT R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 10 | 23.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | RED BRICK GLORY Closed strongly XB/CP1 L Ferraris · P F Yiu | L Ferraris | P F Yiu | 14 | 33.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | TRAVEL GLORY B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 8 | 22.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 1 | DESTIN B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 13.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 6 | VICTORY MORE B/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 26.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 2 | SUPER KIN TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 12 | 12.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | MISSION SMART | 23.6% | 4.24 | 2 |
| 2 | 10 | THIS IS CHARISMA | 19.2% | 5.21 | 3 |
| 3 | 8 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR | 12.0% | 8.36 | 7 |
| 4 | 5 | TRAVEL GLORY | 6.7% | 15.03 | 11 |
| 5 | 2 | SUPER KIN | 5.9% | 16.87 | 14 |
| 6 | 13 | WONDERFUL TIGER | 5.6% | 17.88 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | BRAVE POWER | 5.2% | 19.18 | 1 |
| 8 | 1 | DESTIN | 4.4% | 22.94 | 12 |
| 9 | 12 | NOBLE MAN | 4.2% | 23.87 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | GIVE WAY PLEASE | 3.9% | 25.39 | 8 |
| 11 | 9 | RED BRICK GLORY | 3.9% | 25.63 | 10 |
| 12 | 6 | VICTORY MORE | 2.1% | 46.73 | 13 |
| 13 | 14 | SEA MONARCH | 1.8% | 56.35 | 6 |
| 14 | 11 | GARLIC HERO | 1.6% | 64.02 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 85.5
PLACE
4 24
7 11.5
10 23
QUINELLA
4,7 94
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 44.5
4,10 65
7,10 34
FORECAST
4,7 248
TIERCE
4,7,10 914
TRIO
4,7,10 176
FIRST 4
4,7,10,13 858
QUARTET
4,7,10,13 17,707
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 42.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
10/4 850
10/7 58