Sha Tin · 2022-05-04 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-04 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. BERLIN TANGO, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/2, with KINGS SHIELD second and MONEY CATCHER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite THE ROCK finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.36.72

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly CP-/H/B1/TT 1.36.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	5	114 lb	7.8	1-1/2
2	1	KINGS SHIELD B C Y Ho · F C Lor	C Y Ho	F C Lor	4	133 lb	11.0	1-1/2
3	4	MONEY CATCHER Closed strongly CP1 K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	9	124 lb	6.7	1-1/2
4	5	THE ROCK Closed strongly B J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	1	119 lb	4.3	3-1/2
5	3	TELECOM FIGHTERS Closed strongly Z Purton · Y S Tsui	Z Purton	Y S Tsui	2	126 lb	10.0	3-3/4
6	11	DELIGHTFUL LAOS Closed strongly B-/CP1/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz	H T Mo	A S Cruz	11	111 lb	52.0	4-1/4
7	6	CZARSON Closed strongly CP/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu	M Chadwick	P F Yiu	6	116 lb	13.0	5-3/4
8	12	CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT M F Poon · K W Lui	M F Poon	K W Lui	10	112 lb	6.5	6-1/2
9	7	RED DESERT V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	8	116 lb	11.0	7
10	8	BEAUTY FIT E/PC H Bentley · J Size	H Bentley	J Size	7	115 lb	6.9	7
11	10	HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/P/TT H W Lai · C W Chang	H W Lai	C W Chang	3	113 lb	86.0	7-1/2
12	2	BUDDIES Led early H L Ferraris · A S Cruz	L Ferraris	A S Cruz	12	129 lb	31.0	20-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick TELECOM FIGHTERS (21.1%) finished 5th — the winner BERLIN TANGO was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	TELECOM FIGHTERS	21.1%	4.75	5	10.0
2	4	MONEY CATCHER	19.3%	5.18	3	6.7
3	9	BERLIN TANGO	14.3%	7.02	1	7.8
4	5	THE ROCK	13.8%	7.27	4	4.3
5	7	RED DESERT	6.6%	15.20	9	11.0
6	8	BEAUTY FIT	6.3%	15.90	10	6.9
7	1	KINGS SHIELD	6.0%	16.66	2	11.0
8	6	CZARSON	5.6%	17.90	7	13.0
9	12	CHANCHENG PRINCE	3.7%	27.06	8	6.5
10	11	DELIGHTFUL LAOS	1.4%	72.00	6	52.0
11	2	BUDDIES	1.1%	88.38	12	31.0
12	10	HIGHLY PROACTIVE	0.9%	108.39	11	86.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 78.5

PLACE

1 32.5

4 24

9 24.5

QUINELLA

1,9 476

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 136

1,9 130.5

4,9 90.5

FORECAST

9,1 636

TIERCE

9,1,4 3,996

TRIO

1,4,9 865

FIRST 4

1,4,5,9 661

QUARTET

9,1,4,5 16,528

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 20

A2 —

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,9/1,4,9 11,643

8TH DOUBLE

1/1 107.5

1/9 621

SIX UP

4,7/3,11/1,6/3,7/1,7/1,9 5,310

2 [K Teetan] —

TREBLE

3/1/1 743

3/1/9 4,491

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