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Sha Tin · 2022-05-04 · 21:16

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.38.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 AMAZING TEENS Closed strongly H/P/TT 1.38.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Currie · J Size 14 18.0 1-1/4
2 0 UNITE SPIRIT Closed strongly B/XB B Shinn · W Y So 3 4.5 1-1/4
3 0 SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly XB M Chadwick · D J Hall 1 3.3 1-1/2
4 0 SMART PATCH Closed strongly B R Maia · P O'Sullivan 7 43.0 2
5 0 ROYAL CAMPBELL Led early CP-/H-/V1 L Hewitson · P F Yiu 10 38.0 2-1/4
6 0 ICE LEGEND Closed strongly H/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 11 40.0 2-3/4
7 0 CHATER PINS Closed strongly SR K Teetan · D A Hayes 8 7.9 4-1/4
8 0 HEAVENLY THOUGHT B V Borges · C H Yip 6 35.0 4-1/2
9 0 EL VALIENTE Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes 13 7.1 5-1/2
10 0 STAR OF YUEN LONG B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 9 24.0 5-3/4
11 0 STEEL WIN K C Leung · C W Chang 12 12.0 6
12 0 LAPUTA V-/TT H T Mo · K W Lui 2 20.0 10-3/4
13 0 HANG'S DECISION B C Y Ho · W Y So 4 18.0 15-3/4
14 0 FLYING ON THE TURF B/XB A Hamelin · K H Ting 5 20.0 25-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-04 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. AMAZING TEENS, ridden by L Currie and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with UNITE SPIRIT second and SUN OF MAKFI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite SUN OF MAKFI finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING TEENS—2. UNITE SPIRIT+1.25L3. SUN OF MAKFI+1.5L4. SMART PATCH+2L5. ROYAL CAMPBELL+2.25L6. ICE LEGEND+2.75L7. CHATER PINS+4.25L8. HEAVENLY THOUGHT+4.5L9. EL VALIENTE+5.5L10. STAR OF YUEN LONG+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SUN OF MAKFI (18.8%) finished 3rd — the winner AMAZING TEENS was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SUN OF MAKFI 18.8% 5.33 3
2 0 EL VALIENTE 17.5% 5.70 9
3 0 UNITE SPIRIT 12.6% 7.97 2
4 0 CHATER PINS 11.2% 8.95 7
5 0 AMAZING TEENS 6.5% 15.38 1
6 0 ICE LEGEND 5.5% 18.31 6
7 0 STEEL WIN 5.3% 18.70 11
8 0 LAPUTA 5.0% 20.17 12
9 0 SMART PATCH 4.6% 21.98 4
10 0 FLYING ON THE TURF 3.2% 30.94 14
11 0 STAR OF YUEN LONG 3.1% 32.72 10
12 0 HANG'S DECISION 2.7% 37.12 13
13 0 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 2.4% 41.52 8
14 0 ROYAL CAMPBELL 1.7% 57.31 5
SUN OF MAKFIEL VALIENTEUNITE SPIRITCHATER PINSAMAZING TEENS — wonICE LEGENDSTEEL WINLAPUTASMART PATCHFLYING ON THE TURFSTAR OF YUEN LONGHANG'S DECISIONHEAVENLY THOUGHTROYAL CAMPBELL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 187

PLACE

1 70.5

6 19

11 11

QUINELLA

1,6 420.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 129

1,11 125

6,11 32.5

FORECAST

1,6 1,327

TIERCE

1,6,11 4,306

TRIO

1,6,11 453

FIRST 4

1,6,11,12 4,509

QUARTET

1,6,11,12 111,186

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 27

5TH DOUBLE

11/1 1,485.5

11/6 87