Sha Tin · 2022-05-04 · 19:46
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-04 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. LUCKY VICTOR, ridden by K H Chan and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-1/4, with PRIME STAR second and SMILING FACE third. The winner led throughout. The 5.5 favourite PRIME STAR finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | LUCKY VICTOR Wire to wire B/TT 1.48.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · K H Ting | K H Chan | K H Ting | 6 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 14 | PRIME STAR Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · A T Millard | M F Poon | A T Millard | 1 | 5.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 12 | SMILING FACE Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 14 | 13.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 5 | 6.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | SKY GEM Closed strongly L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 11 | 32.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | TURF BRILLIANT Closed strongly B M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 4 | 8.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | STAR OF GLORY P C L Chau · C W Chang | C L Chau | C W Chang | 8 | 15.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | MOONLUCK R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | 9 | 21.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | ORIENTAL AMIGO V C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 10 | 30.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | LOYAL AMBITION H/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 12 | 16.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 13 | HEROIC CHAMPION B L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan | L Hewitson | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 17.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 1 | FLYING MIGHTY B/TT Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 13 | 6.4 | 9-3/4 |
| 13 | 11 | SPEED FORCE B V Borges · C W Chang | V Borges | C W Chang | 7 | 7.7 | 10 |
| 14 | 9 | ILLUSTRIOUS PC/TT L Currie · T P Yung | L Currie | T P Yung | 2 | 51.0 | 17 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LOYAL AMBITION | 24.1% | 4.15 | 10 |
| 2 | 1 | FLYING MIGHTY | 15.1% | 6.63 | 12 |
| 3 | 11 | SPEED FORCE | 8.2% | 12.20 | 13 |
| 4 | 8 | TURF BRILLIANT | 8.1% | 12.35 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | CROWN AVENUE | 7.9% | 12.60 | 4 |
| 6 | 12 | SMILING FACE | 7.9% | 12.67 | 3 |
| 7 | 14 | PRIME STAR | 5.7% | 17.48 | 2 |
| 8 | 5 | STAR OF GLORY | 4.9% | 20.32 | 7 |
| 9 | 10 | LUCKY VICTOR | 4.7% | 21.29 | 1 |
| 10 | 6 | MOONLUCK | 4.3% | 23.33 | 8 |
| 11 | 4 | SKY GEM | 2.7% | 36.69 | 5 |
| 12 | 7 | ORIENTAL AMIGO | 2.7% | 37.04 | 9 |
| 13 | 13 | HEROIC CHAMPION | 1.9% | 51.57 | 11 |
| 14 | 9 | ILLUSTRIOUS | 1.7% | 58.19 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 112
PLACE
10 41.5
12 38.5
14 20.5
QUINELLA
10,14 416
QUINELLA PLACE
10,12 369.5
10,14 160.5
12,14 163
FORECAST
10,14 822
TIERCE
10,14,12 9,534
TRIO
10,12,14 2,050
FIRST 4
2,10,12,14 2,827
QUARTET
10,14,12,2 69,044
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
1/10 2,489
1/14 264
3 PICK 1
A3 18.5
A1 —
A2 —