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Happy Valley · 2022-05-11 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 YIELDING 2200m Course A 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-05-11 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on YIELDING going. FORTUNE TRIPLE, ridden by K C Leung and trained by Y S Tsui, won by N, with AMAZING BOY second and LOYAL AMBITION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite AMAZING BOY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.20.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly 2.20.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · Y S Tsui 6 7.9 N
2 8 AMAZING BOY Closed strongly B-/CP1/TT Z Purton · C W Chang 1 4.2 N
3 2 LOYAL AMBITION H/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 9 6.0 2-1/2
4 3 SKY GEM Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes 12 11.0 5
5 6 OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B A Badel · W Y So 5 17.0 6-1/2
6 5 JOLLY FOREVER Closed strongly XB/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 8 5.5 6-3/4
7 12 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE B K Teetan · K H Ting 2 6.8 6-3/4
8 4 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB R Maia · A T Millard 11 20.0 13-1/2
9 11 PRESIDENT STAR B/TT H W Lai · C S Shum 4 53.0 14
10 1 PASSING FASHION Led early XB/TT V Borges · C H Yip 10 11.0 14-3/4
11 7 A A AGILITY B-/TT H T Mo · L Ho 7 43.0 19-1/4
12 9 ORIENTAL AMIGO V-/SR1/B2 A Hamelin · Y S Tsui 3 25.0 23-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FORTUNE TRIPLE2. AMAZING BOY+0.05L3. LOYAL AMBITION+2.5L4. SKY GEM+5L5. OWNERS' STAR+6.5L6. JOLLY FOREVER+6.75L7. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+6.75L8. FORTUNE PATROL+13.5L9. PRESIDENT STAR+14L10. PASSING FASHION+14.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick AMAZING BOY (26.2%) finished 2nd — the winner FORTUNE TRIPLE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 AMAZING BOY 26.2% 3.81 2
2 2 LOYAL AMBITION 16.5% 6.05 3
3 12 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 9.8% 10.17 7
4 6 OWNERS' STAR 8.7% 11.52 5
5 3 SKY GEM 8.2% 12.20 4
6 5 JOLLY FOREVER 6.3% 15.79 6
7 4 FORTUNE PATROL 6.2% 16.09 8
8 1 PASSING FASHION 4.8% 20.94 10
9 10 FORTUNE TRIPLE 4.4% 22.85 1
10 7 A A AGILITY 3.7% 27.03 11
11 9 ORIENTAL AMIGO 3.6% 27.82 12
12 11 PRESIDENT STAR 1.5% 65.39 9
AMAZING BOYLOYAL AMBITIONWEALTHY EMPLOYEEOWNERS' STARSKY GEMJOLLY FOREVERFORTUNE PATROLPASSING FASHIONFORTUNE TRIPLE — wonA A AGILITYORIENTAL AMIGOPRESIDENT STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 79.5

PLACE

2 24

8 17

10 21

QUINELLA

8,10 179.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 53.5

2,10 87

8,10 64.5

FORECAST

10,8 491

TIERCE

10,8,2 2,186

TRIO

2,8,10 323

FIRST 4

2,3,8,10 1,143

QUARTET

10,8,2,3 25,724

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 25.5