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Happy Valley · 2022-05-11 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 YIELDING 1000m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-05-11 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on YIELDING going. GORGEOUS VITALITY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 3-3/4, with VIVA MAMA second and SERGEANT PEPPER third. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.58.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 GORGEOUS VITALITY 0.58.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 2 2.2 3-3/4
2 12 VIVA MAMA CP/TT K Teetan · R Gibson 3 6.6 3-3/4
3 5 SERGEANT PEPPER L Ferraris · Y S Tsui 9 34.0 4
4 9 PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN H/SR/TT B Shinn · D J Whyte 8 8.6 5
5 7 VAMOS H A Hamelin · D A Hayes 10 10.0 5
6 4 JUMBO LEGEND H1/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 7 37.0 5-1/4
7 6 SUPER COMMANDER B/TT A Badel · W Y So 6 28.0 5-1/4
8 1 LESLIE B J Moreira · P F Yiu 11 11.0 6
9 11 HERO STAR CP-/TT K C Leung · K L Man 1 7.1 6
10 8 DIAMOND SOARS R Maia · A T Millard 5 37.0 8-3/4
11 3 KOWLOON EAST STAR H/SR/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting 4 26.0 9
12 2 TURQUOISE HOPE B/TT L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan 12 47.0 11
0 CIRCUIT SEVEN · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GORGEOUS VITALITY2. VIVA MAMA+3.75L3. SERGEANT PEPPER+4L4. PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN+5L5. VAMOS+5L6. JUMBO LEGEND+5.25L7. SUPER COMMANDER+5.25L8. LESLIE+6L9. HERO STAR+6L10. DIAMOND SOARS+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick VIVA MAMA (24.0%) finished 2nd — the winner GORGEOUS VITALITY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 VIVA MAMA 24.0% 4.17 2
2 1 LESLIE 21.3% 4.69 8
3 10 GORGEOUS VITALITY 16.6% 6.01 1
4 11 HERO STAR 11.2% 8.96 9
5 6 SUPER COMMANDER 6.0% 16.57 7
6 4 JUMBO LEGEND 5.1% 19.53 6
7 9 PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN 4.6% 21.79 4
8 3 KOWLOON EAST STAR 4.3% 23.41 11
9 7 VAMOS 4.2% 23.74 5
10 2 TURQUOISE HOPE 1.0% 99.28 12
11 8 DIAMOND SOARS 0.9% 114.37 10
12 5 SERGEANT PEPPER 0.8% 128.18 3
VIVA MAMALESLIEGORGEOUS VITALITY — wonHERO STARSUPER COMMANDERJUMBO LEGENDPRETTY QUEEN PRAWNKOWLOON EAST STARVAMOSTURQUOISE HOPEDIAMOND SOARSSERGEANT PEPPER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 22.5

PLACE

5 87

10 11

12 20

QUINELLA

10,12 86

QUINELLA PLACE

5,10 228

5,12 373

10,12 37

FORECAST

10,12 144

TIERCE

10,12,5 4,098

TRIO

5,10,12 1,384

FIRST 4

5,9,10,12 1,426

QUARTET

10,12,5,9 22,045

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,9,12/5,10,12 289,242

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 17.5

4TH DOUBLE

12/10 335.5

12/12 148.5