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Happy Valley · 2022-05-11 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 4 YIELDING 1650m Course A 11 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-05-11 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on YIELDING going. NIMBLE NIMBUS, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by P F Yiu, won by 5, with AMAZING NEWS second and REGENCY MASTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite AMAZING NEWS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.42.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 NIMBLE NIMBUS Closed strongly V/TT 1.42.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · P F Yiu 1 3.8 5
2 11 AMAZING NEWS Closed strongly P/XB J Moreira · C Fownes 4 3.4 5
3 7 REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · C S Shum 7 32.0 5
4 8 HAPPY JAI JAI Closed strongly TT H Bentley · T P Yung 2 10.0 5-1/4
5 5 BABY B A Hamelin · K H Ting 3 9.9 8
6 1 HAPPY ANGEL Closed strongly CP H W Lai · D A Hayes 6 33.0 11-1/2
7 10 FAITHFUL TRINITY Led early H/TT V Borges · W Y So 5 25.0 18-1/2
8 2 V CHEVALIERS B/H/TT K C Leung · K L Man 8 45.0 20-3/4
9 3 HK DRAGON B/TT Z Purton · D J Whyte 9 5.2 21-3/4
10 6 ELIGERE Closed strongly B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 10 25.0 22
11 9 SIXTH GENERATION B1 M Chadwick · C H Yip 11 9.1 23-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NIMBLE NIMBUS2. AMAZING NEWS+5L3. REGENCY MASTER+5L4. HAPPY JAI JAI+5.25L5. BABY+8L6. HAPPY ANGEL+11.5L7. FAITHFUL TRINITY+18.5L8. V CHEVALIERS+20.75L9. HK DRAGON+21.75L10. ELIGERE+22L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick AMAZING NEWS (24.3%) finished 2nd — the winner NIMBLE NIMBUS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 AMAZING NEWS 24.3% 4.12 2
2 3 HK DRAGON 20.2% 4.94 9
3 4 NIMBLE NIMBUS 15.1% 6.60 1
4 5 BABY 10.5% 9.53 5
5 8 HAPPY JAI JAI 9.4% 10.63 4
6 6 ELIGERE 7.7% 13.04 10
7 9 SIXTH GENERATION 3.9% 25.76 11
8 7 REGENCY MASTER 2.8% 35.83 3
9 10 FAITHFUL TRINITY 2.6% 37.97 7
10 2 V CHEVALIERS 1.8% 55.71 8
11 1 HAPPY ANGEL 1.7% 60.23 6
AMAZING NEWSHK DRAGONNIMBLE NIMBUS — wonBABYHAPPY JAI JAIELIGERESIXTH GENERATIONREGENCY MASTERFAITHFUL TRINITYV CHEVALIERSHAPPY ANGEL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 38

PLACE

4 15

7 78

11 15

QUINELLA

4,11 65.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 226.5

4,11 29.5

7,11 203.5

FORECAST

4,11 164

TIERCE

4,11,7 2,413

TRIO

4,7,11 659

FIRST 4

4,7,8,11 1,230

QUARTET

4,11,7,8 19,181

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/4 347.5

2/11 55

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 18