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Happy Valley · 2022-05-11 · 21:46

Race 7

Class 3 YIELDING 1800m Course A 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2022-05-11 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on YIELDING going. TIANCHI MONSTER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by W Y So, won by 2, with GAMEPLAYER TIMES second and NEARLY FINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite NEARLY FINE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.51.50
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly 1.51.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · W Y So 7 19.0 2
2 7 GAMEPLAYER TIMES Closed strongly SR/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 4 6.9 2
3 6 NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes 6 2.9 2-3/4
4 11 SURREALISM Closed strongly B A Badel · R Gibson 9 39.0 3
5 1 SAVVY KINGMAN Led early B Shinn · F C Lor 1 14.0 3-1/2
6 9 DR WINNING Closed strongly TT K Teetan · J Size 11 16.0 4-1/4
7 10 DARCI JOY B V Borges · P F Yiu 2 5.6 4-3/4
8 5 GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B R Maia · A T Millard 8 25.0 5
9 12 VINCY Closed strongly SR/TT H W Lai · C H Yip 10 78.0 5-1/4
10 8 READY PLAYER ONE CP-/B1/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang 5 6.6 6-3/4
11 4 CINQUANTE CINQ K C Leung · T P Yung 12 38.0 7-1/4
12 3 MAJESTIC VICTORY TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 3 8.4 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TIANCHI MONSTER2. GAMEPLAYER TIMES+2L3. NEARLY FINE+2.75L4. SURREALISM+3L5. SAVVY KINGMAN+3.5L6. DR WINNING+4.25L7. DARCI JOY+4.75L8. GIFT OF LIFELINE+5L9. VINCY+5.25L10. READY PLAYER ONE+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick NEARLY FINE (29.1%) finished 3rd — the winner TIANCHI MONSTER was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 NEARLY FINE 29.1% 3.44 3
2 1 SAVVY KINGMAN 17.2% 5.81 5
3 10 DARCI JOY 10.0% 10.00 7
4 7 GAMEPLAYER TIMES 8.3% 12.02 2
5 8 READY PLAYER ONE 8.1% 12.38 10
6 5 GIFT OF LIFELINE 6.5% 15.32 8
7 9 DR WINNING 6.0% 16.70 6
8 2 TIANCHI MONSTER 4.6% 21.93 1
9 3 MAJESTIC VICTORY 3.4% 29.17 12
10 4 CINQUANTE CINQ 3.1% 32.74 11
11 11 SURREALISM 2.1% 48.77 4
12 12 VINCY 1.7% 59.52 9
NEARLY FINESAVVY KINGMANDARCI JOYGAMEPLAYER TIMESREADY PLAYER ONEGIFT OF LIFELINEDR WINNINGTIANCHI MONSTER — wonMAJESTIC VICTORYCINQUANTE CINQSURREALISMVINCY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 199

PLACE

2 53

6 14.5

7 24

QUINELLA

2,7 1,002

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 147

2,7 263

6,7 44

FORECAST

2,7 1,918

TIERCE

2,7,6 7,496

TRIO

2,6,7 835

FIRST 4

2,6,7,11 4,717

QUARTET

2,7,6,11 145,758

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

6,10,12/2,6,7 523,478

3 PICK 1

A3 29.5

A2

A1

6TH DOUBLE

10/2 2,494.5

10/7 232.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

5,10,12/Any Combination/Any Combination 195