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Happy Valley · 2022-05-18 · 19:15

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly 1.39.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · K W Lui 12 6.1 1-3/4
2 0 JOLLY HONOUR Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui 4 12.0 1-3/4
3 0 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · L Ho 2 3.3 2
4 0 EEVEE Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · D A Hayes 9 10.0 3-1/2
5 0 KOWLOON GREAT Closed strongly CP1/TT K H Chan · C S Shum 8 10.0 3-3/4
6 0 ON EXCEL STAR B/XB C Y Ho · K H Ting 3 11.0 4-3/4
7 0 E LEGEND C L Chau · K L Man 10 4.6 5
8 0 HYPERION TREE Closed strongly B A Badel · F C Lor 6 14.0 5
9 0 MEDIC ELITE B/TT C Wong · P O'Sullivan 1 114.0 6-1/2
10 0 MORE THAN ENOUGH Led early B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 5 40.0 10-1/2
11 0 CORDYCEPS TWO V Borges · C H Yip 7 16.0 10-1/2
12 0 NORDIC COMBINED B/TT L Hewitson · R Gibson 11 54.0 13-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-05-18 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. WIN WIN FIGHTER, ridden by B Shinn and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-3/4, with JOLLY HONOUR second and HAPPY DAILY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite HAPPY DAILY finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WIN WIN FIGHTER—2. JOLLY HONOUR+1.75L3. HAPPY DAILY+2L4. EEVEE+3.5L5. KOWLOON GREAT+3.75L6. ON EXCEL STAR+4.75L7. E LEGEND+5L8. HYPERION TREE+5L9. MEDIC ELITE+6.5L10. MORE THAN ENOUGH+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick WIN WIN FIGHTER (19.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 WIN WIN FIGHTER 19.7% 5.08 1
2 0 HAPPY DAILY 15.5% 6.44 3
3 0 ON EXCEL STAR 15.5% 6.47 6
4 0 E LEGEND 14.5% 6.90 7
5 0 HYPERION TREE 10.6% 9.45 8
6 0 EEVEE 5.9% 17.06 4
7 0 KOWLOON GREAT 3.7% 27.24 5
8 0 CORDYCEPS TWO 3.6% 27.51 11
9 0 NORDIC COMBINED 3.3% 30.27 12
10 0 JOLLY HONOUR 2.8% 35.13 2
11 0 MORE THAN ENOUGH 2.6% 38.20 10
12 0 MEDIC ELITE 2.3% 43.34 9
WIN WIN FIGHTER — wonHAPPY DAILYON EXCEL STARE LEGENDHYPERION TREEEEVEEKOWLOON GREATCORDYCEPS TWONORDIC COMBINEDJOLLY HONOURMORE THAN ENOUGHMEDIC ELITE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 61

PLACE

1 14

4 21.5

10 31

QUINELLA

4,10 306

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 46

1,10 69

4,10 98

FORECAST

4,10 721

TIERCE

4,10,1 2,734

TRIO

1,4,10 359

FIRST 4

1,4,10,11 694

QUARTET

4,10,1,11 20,602

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

10/4 637.5

10/10 208.5

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 21.5