Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2022-05-18 · 21:21

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-05-18 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. VALIANT ELEGANCE, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1/2, with MAGIC PHOENIX second and DROPS OF GOD third. The 3.7 favourite DROPS OF GOD finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT 1.09.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 8 11.0 1/2
2 5 MAGIC PHOENIX TT B Shinn · K H Ting 3 6.8 1/2
3 1 DROPS OF GOD Z Purton · J Size 10 3.7 3/4
4 9 FLAMING PASSION TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 1 3.7 1
5 10 MERCURIAL H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 6 24.0 2
6 8 KILLER INSTINCT TT C Wong · C Fownes 11 18.0 2-1/2
7 12 RACING FIGHTER B/TT V Borges · C H Yip 2 15.0 2-3/4
8 4 CLASSIC POSH L Currie · D J Hall 4 28.0 3-3/4
9 2 FAMILY FOLKS B A Hamelin · C W Chang 12 22.0 3-3/4
10 6 SCOTCH TYCOON H K Teetan · K W Lui 9 7.5 5
11 7 ENCOUNTERED A Badel · K L Man 5 23.0 5-3/4
12 3 JOLLY GOOD HEART H Bentley · T P Yung 7 61.0 6-1/2
0 GALLANT CROWN H T Mo · A T Millard

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VALIANT ELEGANCE2. MAGIC PHOENIX+0.5L3. DROPS OF GOD+0.75L4. FLAMING PASSION+1L5. MERCURIAL+2L6. KILLER INSTINCT+2.5L7. RACING FIGHTER+2.75L8. CLASSIC POSH+3.75L9. FAMILY FOLKS+3.75L10. SCOTCH TYCOON+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick FLAMING PASSION (21.9%) finished 4th — the winner VALIANT ELEGANCE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 FLAMING PASSION 21.9% 4.57 4
2 5 MAGIC PHOENIX 15.2% 6.56 2
3 6 SCOTCH TYCOON 14.7% 6.80 10
4 1 DROPS OF GOD 11.6% 8.64 3
5 8 KILLER INSTINCT 8.9% 11.24 6
6 11 VALIANT ELEGANCE 6.7% 14.97 1
7 2 FAMILY FOLKS 4.6% 21.84 9
8 10 MERCURIAL 4.3% 23.15 5
9 3 JOLLY GOOD HEART 3.8% 26.00 12
10 4 CLASSIC POSH 3.7% 27.19 8
11 7 ENCOUNTERED 2.8% 35.72 11
12 12 RACING FIGHTER 1.8% 55.25 7
FLAMING PASSIONMAGIC PHOENIXSCOTCH TYCOONDROPS OF GODKILLER INSTINCTVALIANT ELEGANCE — wonFAMILY FOLKSMERCURIALJOLLY GOOD HEARTCLASSIC POSHENCOUNTEREDRACING FIGHTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 111

PLACE

1 16.5

5 24

11 31

QUINELLA

5,11 449

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 55.5

1,11 83.5

5,11 145.5

FORECAST

11,5 895

TIERCE

11,5,1 3,585

TRIO

1,5,11 630

FIRST 4

1,5,9,11 329

QUARTET

11,5,1,9 10,437

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 27

A3

5TH DOUBLE

10/5 1,474

10/11 9,175