Happy Valley · 2022-05-18 · 20:18
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-05-18 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CHARMING STEED, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by SH, with SHINING FORTUNE second and SEE U AGAIN third. The 3.1 favourite SEE U AGAIN finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | CHARMING STEED B-/TT 1.10.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 8 | 11.0 | SH |
| 2 | 8 | SHINING FORTUNE H L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 2 | 10.0 | SH |
| 3 | 7 | SEE U AGAIN H1 Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 3 | 3.1 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | HAPPY SHARING TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 4 | 6.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | MELBOURNE HALL H/XB A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 7 | 6.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | NEXTMODEL TT H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 10 | 37.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | HAPPY TRIO SR L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 11 | 15.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 2 | GOOD NEWS V/TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 1 | 6.6 | 4 |
| 9 | 10 | CASA KINGDOM CP K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 5 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | MASTER OF LUCK H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 13.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 12 | STEEL WIN C Wong · C W Chang | C Wong | C W Chang | 12 | 67.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | FORTUNE PRESIDENT B H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 9 | 137.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GOOD NEWS | 22.4% | 4.46 | 8 |
| 2 | 7 | SEE U AGAIN | 13.4% | 7.44 | 3 |
| 3 | 10 | CASA KINGDOM | 13.2% | 7.60 | 9 |
| 4 | 1 | HAPPY SHARING | 12.5% | 7.97 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | CHARMING STEED | 7.9% | 12.70 | 1 |
| 6 | 8 | SHINING FORTUNE | 7.7% | 12.94 | 2 |
| 7 | 5 | MASTER OF LUCK | 5.0% | 20.16 | 10 |
| 8 | 12 | STEEL WIN | 4.9% | 20.31 | 11 |
| 9 | 11 | MELBOURNE HALL | 4.7% | 21.11 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 | HAPPY TRIO | 4.2% | 24.05 | 7 |
| 11 | 9 | NEXTMODEL | 3.5% | 28.18 | 6 |
| 12 | 4 | FORTUNE PRESIDENT | 0.5% | 197.44 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 113.5
PLACE
3 33.5
7 14.5
8 35
QUINELLA
3,8 537.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 64.5
3,8 157
7,8 75.5
FORECAST
3,8 872
TIERCE
3,8,7 4,242
TRIO
3,7,8 580
FIRST 4
1,3,7,8 572
QUARTET
3,8,7,1 17,518
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 29
3RD DOUBLE
12/3 1,788
12/8 422.5