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Happy Valley · 2022-06-22 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RUN THE TABLE Closed strongly H 1.41.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 2 4.7 1-1/4
2 0 GO FOR TEA Closed strongly B Shinn · F C Lor 3 5.3 1-1/4
3 0 ONE STEP AHEAD Closed strongly CP- M Chadwick · C W Chang 1 8.6 1-3/4
4 0 EL VALIENTE Closed strongly TT K H Chan · C Fownes 5 14.0 2-1/4
5 0 CIRCUIT ELITE Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 11 11.0 2-1/2
6 0 PRIME STAR B/TT A Badel · A T Millard 6 10.0 2-3/4
7 0 OH BRAVO TT J Moreira · W Y So 7 8.5 3
8 0 LOTUS FAVORITES Closed strongly H L Ferraris · D J Hall 9 11.0 3-3/4
9 0 ZACIAN Closed strongly H Bentley · C S Shum 10 21.0 3-3/4
10 0 BEST FOR YOU B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 4 8.4 4
11 0 HEAVENLY THOUGHT V-/B2 A Hamelin · C H Yip 8 17.0 4-1/4
12 0 FORTUNE MARBO Led early B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 12 74.0 5-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-06-22 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RUN THE TABLE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with GO FOR TEA second and ONE STEP AHEAD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.7 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUN THE TABLE—2. GO FOR TEA+1.25L3. ONE STEP AHEAD+1.75L4. EL VALIENTE+2.25L5. CIRCUIT ELITE+2.5L6. PRIME STAR+2.75L7. OH BRAVO+3L8. LOTUS FAVORITES+3.75L9. ZACIAN+3.75L10. BEST FOR YOU+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick OH BRAVO (17.4%) finished 7th — the winner RUN THE TABLE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 OH BRAVO 17.4% 5.76 7
2 0 RUN THE TABLE 16.9% 5.92 1
3 0 GO FOR TEA 12.7% 7.90 2
4 0 CIRCUIT ELITE 10.8% 9.23 5
5 0 ONE STEP AHEAD 8.1% 12.32 3
6 0 LOTUS FAVORITES 8.1% 12.42 8
7 0 EL VALIENTE 8.0% 12.52 4
8 0 PRIME STAR 6.6% 15.24 6
9 0 BEST FOR YOU 5.1% 19.80 10
10 0 ZACIAN 3.1% 31.79 9
11 0 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 2.4% 41.19 11
12 0 FORTUNE MARBO 0.9% 110.49 12
OH BRAVORUN THE TABLE — wonGO FOR TEACIRCUIT ELITEONE STEP AHEADLOTUS FAVORITESEL VALIENTEPRIME STARBEST FOR YOUZACIANHEAVENLY THOUGHTFORTUNE MARBO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 47

PLACE

3 18

7 20

11 26.5

QUINELLA

3,7 129

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 47

3,11 80.5

7,11 71

FORECAST

7,3 252

TIERCE

7,3,11 1,326

TRIO

3,7,11 281

FIRST 4

3,7,8,11 810

QUARTET

7,3,11,8 12,566

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 25

A2 —