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Happy Valley · 2022-06-22 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-06-22 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RUN THE TABLE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with GO FOR TEA second and ONE STEP AHEAD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.41.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 RUN THE TABLE Closed strongly H 1.41.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 2 4.7 1-1/4
2 3 GO FOR TEA Closed strongly B Shinn · F C Lor 3 5.3 1-1/4
3 11 ONE STEP AHEAD Closed strongly CP- M Chadwick · C W Chang 1 8.6 1-3/4
4 8 EL VALIENTE Closed strongly TT K H Chan · C Fownes 5 14.0 2-1/4
5 1 CIRCUIT ELITE Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 11 11.0 2-1/2
6 12 PRIME STAR B/TT A Badel · A T Millard 6 10.0 2-3/4
7 10 OH BRAVO TT J Moreira · W Y So 7 8.5 3
8 5 LOTUS FAVORITES Closed strongly H L Ferraris · D J Hall 9 11.0 3-3/4
9 9 ZACIAN Closed strongly H Bentley · C S Shum 10 21.0 3-3/4
10 6 BEST FOR YOU B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 4 8.4 4
11 4 HEAVENLY THOUGHT V-/B2 A Hamelin · C H Yip 8 17.0 4-1/4
12 2 FORTUNE MARBO Led early B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 12 74.0 5-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUN THE TABLE2. GO FOR TEA+1.25L3. ONE STEP AHEAD+1.75L4. EL VALIENTE+2.25L5. CIRCUIT ELITE+2.5L6. PRIME STAR+2.75L7. OH BRAVO+3L8. LOTUS FAVORITES+3.75L9. ZACIAN+3.75L10. BEST FOR YOU+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick OH BRAVO (17.4%) finished 7th — the winner RUN THE TABLE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 OH BRAVO 17.4% 5.76 7
2 7 RUN THE TABLE 16.9% 5.92 1
3 3 GO FOR TEA 12.7% 7.90 2
4 1 CIRCUIT ELITE 10.8% 9.23 5
5 11 ONE STEP AHEAD 8.1% 12.32 3
6 5 LOTUS FAVORITES 8.1% 12.42 8
7 8 EL VALIENTE 8.0% 12.52 4
8 12 PRIME STAR 6.6% 15.24 6
9 6 BEST FOR YOU 5.1% 19.80 10
10 9 ZACIAN 3.1% 31.79 9
11 4 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 2.4% 41.19 11
12 2 FORTUNE MARBO 0.9% 110.49 12
OH BRAVORUN THE TABLE — wonGO FOR TEACIRCUIT ELITEONE STEP AHEADLOTUS FAVORITESEL VALIENTEPRIME STARBEST FOR YOUZACIANHEAVENLY THOUGHTFORTUNE MARBO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 47

PLACE

3 18

7 20

11 26.5

QUINELLA

3,7 129

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 47

3,11 80.5

7,11 71

FORECAST

7,3 252

TIERCE

7,3,11 1,326

TRIO

3,7,11 281

FIRST 4

3,7,8,11 810

QUARTET

7,3,11,8 12,566

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 25

A3

A2