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Happy Valley · 2022-09-21 · 19:16

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 9 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/XB 1.39.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall 7 17.0 HD
2 0 CHARIZARD Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · A T Millard 5 7.0 HD
3 0 SUNNY DELIGHT B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum 2 2.4 N
4 0 SUPER HORNET Led early B-/CP1/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 9 12.0 1/2
5 0 NOBLE STEED B C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 8.4 1-1/2
6 0 JADE PHOENIX Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 8 6.9 3-1/4
7 0 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly K C Leung · T P Yung 6 14.0 4-1/4
8 0 V CHEVALIERS B/H/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 3 14.0 4-1/2
9 0 KING TOURBILLON TT A Badel · C Fownes 4 8.2 5

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-21 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by HD, with CHARIZARD second and SUNNY DELIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite SUNNY DELIGHT finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR—2. CHARIZARD+0.2L3. SUNNY DELIGHT+0.05L4. SUPER HORNET+0.5L5. NOBLE STEED+1.5L6. JADE PHOENIX+3.25L7. DRAGON PRIDE+4.25L8. V CHEVALIERS+4.5L9. KING TOURBILLON+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick JADE PHOENIX (23.8%) finished 6th — the winner YEE CHEONG WARRIOR was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 JADE PHOENIX 23.8% 4.19 6
2 0 SUNNY DELIGHT 22.6% 4.43 3
3 0 CHARIZARD 12.6% 7.95 2
4 0 NOBLE STEED 11.9% 8.39 5
5 0 DRAGON PRIDE 10.0% 9.95 7
6 0 KING TOURBILLON 6.9% 14.57 9
7 0 SUPER HORNET 5.1% 19.77 4
8 0 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 4.3% 23.01 1
9 0 V CHEVALIERS 2.8% 36.28 8
JADE PHOENIXSUNNY DELIGHTCHARIZARDNOBLE STEEDDRAGON PRIDEKING TOURBILLONSUPER HORNETYEE CHEONG WARRIOR — wonV CHEVALIERS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 170.5

PLACE

6 40.5

8 14

9 20.5

QUINELLA

6,9 519

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 89.5

6,9 156

8,9 34

FORECAST

6,9 1,117

TIERCE

6,9,8 4,066

TRIO

6,8,9 442

FIRST 4

5,6,8,9 739

QUARTET

6,9,8,5 26,159

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 32

A2 —