Happy Valley · 2022-09-21 · 20:46
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CIRCUIT ELITE Closed strongly CP-/B2/TT 1.49.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 5 | 5.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | LOYAL AMBITION Closed strongly H/B1/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 2 | 3.7 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS Closed strongly B V Borges · R Gibson | V Borges | R Gibson | 10 | 23.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 6 | 9.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | PASSING FASHION Closed strongly XB/TT R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 9 | 23.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT2 L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 12 | 22.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 11 | 16.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | GRAND POWER B L Currie · C W Chang | L Currie | C W Chang | 8 | 11.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 0 | FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB H Bentley · A T Millard | H Bentley | A T Millard | 1 | 20.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | WAH MAY LUCK Led early B/TT- A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 7 | 12.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | GO BALLISTIC SR/TT L Ferraris · R Gibson | L Ferraris | R Gibson | 4 | 10.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | SMART COUSIN A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 3 | 7.2 | 14-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-21 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CIRCUIT ELITE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by A S Cruz, won by 2, with LOYAL AMBITION second and SUCCESS ALLSTARS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite LOYAL AMBITION finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CIRCUIT ELITE | 17.0% | 5.87 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | SMART COUSIN | 12.1% | 8.25 | 12 |
| 3 | 0 | LOYAL AMBITION | 11.4% | 8.76 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | OWNERS' STAR | 9.9% | 10.10 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | GO BALLISTIC | 9.8% | 10.21 | 11 |
| 6 | 0 | WAH MAY LUCK | 8.6% | 11.65 | 10 |
| 7 | 0 | GRAND POWER | 8.1% | 12.40 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | FORTUNE TRIPLE | 7.3% | 13.69 | 7 |
| 9 | 0 | PASSING FASHION | 5.9% | 17.04 | 5 |
| 10 | 0 | REGENCY MASTER | 4.2% | 23.57 | 6 |
| 11 | 0 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS | 3.0% | 33.48 | 3 |
| 12 | 0 | FORTUNE PATROL | 2.7% | 37.45 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 50
PLACE
2 20.5
9 16
10 70.5
QUINELLA
2,9 105.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 47
2,10 243.5
9,10 191.5
FORECAST
2,9 251
TIERCE
2,9,10 4,470
TRIO
2,9,10 909
FIRST 4
2,5,9,10 1,882
QUARTET
2,9,10,5 42,174
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,7>1,8/2,9,10 53,125
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 29.5
3RD DOUBLE
1,8/2 119
1,8/9 21.5