Happy Valley · 2022-09-21 · 22:23

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 9 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-21 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. STREET SCREAM, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with DROPS OF GOD second and SUPER MISSION third. The 3.7 favourite SUPER MISSION finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.68

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	STREET SCREAM B/H/TT 1.09.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz	M Chadwick	A S Cruz	9	118 lb	9.6	3/4
2	2	DROPS OF GOD B1 Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	5	132 lb	10.0	3/4
3	8	SUPER MISSION H/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu	K C Leung	P F Yiu	2	119 lb	3.7	1-1/4
4	4	RISING FROM ASHES CP/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	8	129 lb	7.4	2
5	5	SUPER DOBBIN B S De Sousa · A T Millard	S De Sousa	A T Millard	3	121 lb	5.3	3
6	3	LIKE THAT V J Moreira · F C Lor	J Moreira	F C Lor	1	129 lb	4.3	4-3/4
7	6	DIAMOND BRILLIANT TT A Badel · T P Yung	A Badel	T P Yung	4	119 lb	27.0	5
8	7	SPONTANEOUS B C L Chau · P C Ng	C L Chau	P C Ng	7	119 lb	10.0	5-1/2
9	1	THE RUNNER V M F Poon · K H Ting	M F Poon	K H Ting	6	133 lb	18.0	7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick RISING FROM ASHES (17.9%) finished 4th — the winner STREET SCREAM was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	RISING FROM ASHES	17.9%	5.60	4	7.4
2	8	SUPER MISSION	15.6%	6.42	3	3.7
3	3	LIKE THAT	14.5%	6.92	6	4.3
4	5	SUPER DOBBIN	14.3%	6.99	5	5.3
5	7	SPONTANEOUS	10.6%	9.45	8	10.0
6	9	STREET SCREAM	9.6%	10.45	1	9.6
7	2	DROPS OF GOD	8.1%	12.41	2	10.0
8	1	THE RUNNER	5.9%	17.07	9	18.0
9	6	DIAMOND BRILLIANT	3.7%	26.87	7	27.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 96.5

PLACE

2 30

8 14

9 29.5

QUINELLA

2,9 401

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 66

2,9 133

8,9 61.5

FORECAST

9,2 799

TIERCE

9,2,8 3,714

TRIO

2,8,9 448

FIRST 4

2,4,8,9 607

QUARTET

9,2,8,4 14,857

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 30.5

A1 —

6TH DOUBLE

9/2 106

9/9 499

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