Happy Valley · 2022-09-21 · 20:16

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course B 8 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-21 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3/4, with LUCKY GOR second and SUPER COMMANDER third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.57

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN H/SR/TT 0.56.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	2	124 lb	2.1	3/4
2	7	LUCKY GOR B/E/TT J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	7	126 lb	9.5	3/4
3	3	SUPER COMMANDER B/TT C L Chau · P C Ng	C L Chau	P C Ng	8	129 lb	12.0	2-3/4
4	4	SEE U AGAIN Z Purton · C S Shum	Z Purton	C S Shum	3	130 lb	3.0	3-1/2
5	5	GLORY BO BO B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum	H Bentley	C S Shum	9	127 lb	30.0	5
6	9	NEXTMODEL TT H T Mo · T P Yung	H T Mo	T P Yung	6	113 lb	14.0	5-1/2
7	2	CALIFORNIA FOREST H/B1/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz	L Ferraris	A S Cruz	1	131 lb	10.0	6-3/4
8	6	SPEEDSTAR B1 L Currie · D J Hall	L Currie	D J Hall	4	127 lb	25.0	7
—	1	FABULOUS EIGHT C Y Ho · P F Yiu	C Y Ho	P F Yiu	—	135 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick SEE U AGAIN (43.0%) finished 4th — the winner PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	SEE U AGAIN	43.0%	2.33	4	3.0
2	7	LUCKY GOR	14.5%	6.89	2	9.5
3	8	PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN	14.4%	6.93	1	2.1
4	2	CALIFORNIA FOREST	8.1%	12.40	7	10.0
5	5	GLORY BO BO	6.1%	16.49	5	30.0
6	3	SUPER COMMANDER	5.4%	18.39	3	12.0
7	9	NEXTMODEL	4.6%	21.70	6	14.0
8	6	SPEEDSTAR	3.9%	25.54	8	25.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 21.5

PLACE

3 25

7 23

8 11

QUINELLA

7,8 109.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 121

3,8 45

7,8 42

FORECAST

8,7 190

TIERCE

8,7,3 1,612

TRIO

3,7,8 314

FIRST 4

3,4,7,8 100

QUARTET

8,7,3,4 2,488

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

1/1,8 99.5

1/7 151

3 PICK 1

A1 12.5

A3 —

A2 —

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