Happy Valley · 2022-09-21 · 21:22
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-21 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FORTUNE HERO, ridden by R Maia and trained by R Gibson, won by N, with ISLAND SURPRISE second and EUROMISSILE third. The 2.5 favourite ISLAND SURPRISE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | FORTUNE HERO B/TT 1.10.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 3 | 8.9 | N |
| 2 | 6 | ISLAND SURPRISE B/TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 5 | 2.5 | N |
| 3 | 10 | EUROMISSILE B/H/XB M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 1 | 23.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | SMART LEADER B/XB1/TT S De Sousa · W Y So | S De Sousa | W Y So | 2 | 7.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | SUNNY AND GOLD TT J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 7 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 9 | HEARTY WISH SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 10 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 1 | POLARIS WINNER CP-/B1 H Bentley · A T Millard | H Bentley | A T Millard | 9 | 30.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | RAGING BLAZE TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 6 | 7.8 | 3 |
| 9 | 5 | THETA HEDGE B/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 9.7 | 4 |
| 10 | 4 | HAPPY FAT CAT P1 H N Wong · P C Ng | H N Wong | P C Ng | 4 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 7 | THE MULTIPLIER CP-/B2/TT L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 8 | 29.0 | 10 |
| — | 3 | CIGAR BUDDIES A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | ISLAND SURPRISE | 20.1% | 4.96 | 2 |
| 2 | 12 | RAGING BLAZE | 15.2% | 6.58 | 8 |
| 3 | 2 | SMART LEADER | 12.6% | 7.94 | 4 |
| 4 | 8 | SUNNY AND GOLD | 10.8% | 9.24 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | THETA HEDGE | 10.4% | 9.61 | 9 |
| 6 | 9 | HEARTY WISH | 6.9% | 14.52 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | THE MULTIPLIER | 6.8% | 14.69 | 11 |
| 8 | 10 | EUROMISSILE | 6.1% | 16.31 | 3 |
| 9 | 11 | FORTUNE HERO | 5.8% | 17.17 | 1 |
| 10 | 4 | HAPPY FAT CAT | 3.4% | 29.40 | 10 |
| 11 | 1 | POLARIS WINNER | 1.8% | 56.16 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 89.5
PLACE
6 13.5
10 58
11 26
QUINELLA
6,11 113
QUINELLA PLACE
6,10 103
6,11 47.5
10,11 225
FORECAST
11,6 319
TIERCE
11,6,10 3,967
TRIO
6,10,11 507
FIRST 4
2,6,10,11 906
QUARTET
11,6,10,2 23,288
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 24.5
A2 —
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
2/3,6 22.5
2/11 952.5