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Happy Valley · 2022-09-21 · 21:51

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course B 9 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 THE ANOMALY Closed strongly V 1.39.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K H Ting 6 7.2 N
2 0 PACKING FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 5 5.3 N
3 0 MAJESTIC VICTORY TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 4 19.0 1/2
4 0 GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B S De Sousa · A T Millard 2 8.6 1/2
5 0 COPARTNER ELITES CP/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 3 4.5 1-1/4
6 0 STORM LEGEND J Moreira · C Fownes 8 3.9 1-1/2
7 0 MY ECSTATIC Led early TT K C Leung · F C Lor 1 6.6 2-1/4
8 0 ROBOT WARRIOR B L Ferraris · P F Yiu 9 22.0 4
9 0 INCANTO PREPARED E/TT Z Purton · J Size 7 22.0 4-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-21 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. THE ANOMALY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K H Ting, won by N, with PACKING FAMOUS second and MAJESTIC VICTORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite STORM LEGEND finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE ANOMALY—2. PACKING FAMOUS+0.05L3. MAJESTIC VICTORY+0.5L4. GIFT OF LIFELINE+0.5L5. COPARTNER ELITES+1.25L6. STORM LEGEND+1.5L7. MY ECSTATIC+2.25L8. ROBOT WARRIOR+4L9. INCANTO PREPARED+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MY ECSTATIC (21.3%) finished 7th — the winner THE ANOMALY was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MY ECSTATIC 21.3% 4.69 7
2 0 COPARTNER ELITES 16.7% 5.99 5
3 0 GIFT OF LIFELINE 13.1% 7.64 4
4 0 STORM LEGEND 10.8% 9.25 6
5 0 THE ANOMALY 8.8% 11.41 1
6 0 MAJESTIC VICTORY 8.4% 11.85 3
7 0 PACKING FAMOUS 7.8% 12.85 2
8 0 ROBOT WARRIOR 6.8% 14.75 8
9 0 INCANTO PREPARED 6.3% 15.83 9
MY ECSTATICCOPARTNER ELITESGIFT OF LIFELINESTORM LEGENDTHE ANOMALY — wonMAJESTIC VICTORYPACKING FAMOUSROBOT WARRIORINCANTO PREPARED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 72

PLACE

5 18.5

6 49.5

9 23.5

QUINELLA

5,9 174.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 145.5

5,9 69

6,9 157.5

FORECAST

9,5 332

TIERCE

9,5,6 4,529

TRIO

5,6,9 973

FIRST 4

4,5,6,9 1,509

QUARTET

9,5,6,4 25,958

All pools (5 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

10,11>3,6/5,6,9 82,316

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 35.5

5TH DOUBLE

11/5 96.5

11/9 702.5

TRIPLE TRIO

2,9,10/10,11>3,6/5,6,9 30,324,969

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,9,10/10,11>3,6/Any Combination 23,805