Happy Valley · 2022-10-05 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-05 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. NOBLE STEED, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with AMIGOS GIGGLE second and JADE PHOENIX third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.9 favourite AMIGOS GIGGLE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.04

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	NOBLE STEED Closed strongly B- 1.39.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K W Lui	M F Poon	K W Lui	1	115 lb	12.0	N
2	8	AMIGOS GIGGLE Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	2	117 lb	1.9	N
3	1	JADE PHOENIX CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	5	135 lb	14.0	3-3/4
4	6	SUNNY DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum	H Bentley	C S Shum	8	119 lb	8.8	3-3/4
5	4	MORE THAN ENOUGH Led early B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz	L Ferraris	A S Cruz	7	130 lb	12.0	3-3/4
6	2	BIG TWO H/SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	4	132 lb	7.0	4-1/2
7	3	BABY B V Borges · K H Ting	V Borges	K H Ting	6	131 lb	15.0	5-1/2
8	7	HOLI MOLI B- M Chadwick · D A Hayes	M Chadwick	D A Hayes	3	118 lb	51.0	8-3/4
9	5	GLORIOUS LOVER V- Z Purton · C H Yip	Z Purton	C H Yip	9	121 lb	8.3	82

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick AMIGOS GIGGLE (29.9%) finished 2nd — the winner NOBLE STEED was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	AMIGOS GIGGLE	29.9%	3.34	2	1.9
2	9	NOBLE STEED	14.2%	7.05	1	12.0
3	2	BIG TWO	13.7%	7.28	6	7.0
4	3	BABY	9.4%	10.67	7	15.0
5	6	SUNNY DELIGHT	9.3%	10.81	4	8.8
6	1	JADE PHOENIX	7.6%	13.17	3	14.0
7	5	GLORIOUS LOVER	7.5%	13.36	9	8.3
8	4	MORE THAN ENOUGH	7.1%	14.13	5	12.0
9	7	HOLI MOLI	1.4%	72.55	8	51.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 123

PLACE

1 38.5

8 11.5

9 26

QUINELLA

8,9 88

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 67.5

1,9 199

8,9 33.5

FORECAST

9,8 311

TIERCE

9,8,1 2,576

TRIO

1,8,9 316

FIRST 4

1,6,8,9 454

QUARTET

9,8,1,6 13,290

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/8 60

3/9 1,227.5

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 29.5

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