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Happy Valley · 2022-10-05 · 22:18

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.94
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SIGHT HERO B/TT 1.09.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Currie · D A Hayes 7 15.0 N
3 0 MEGA BONUS CP-/XB-/V1 V Borges · P F Yiu 4 4.2 1
4 0 ABOVE ALL H/XB R Maia · A T Millard 2 10.0 1-1/4
5 0 HAPPY SOUL CP/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 12 27.0 2
6 0 TURIN WARRIOR B/XB M F Poon · R Gibson 5 15.0 2
7 0 MY INTELLIGENT V1/TT M Chadwick · L Ho 3 3.0 2
8 0 OUR CLASS ACT H K C Leung · Y S Tsui 8 10.0 2-1/2
9 0 COLOURFUL PRINCE H/SR/TT K H Chan · D J Whyte 9 31.0 3-1/4
10 0 HAPPY FOREVER XB/TT L Ferraris · K L Man 1 14.0 6-1/2
11 0 GANG OF BROTHERS V C Y Ho · P C Ng 11 9.1 7-3/4
12 0 GEM OF SOUTH CHINA M L Yeung · K H Ting 10 17.0 22
— 0 BRAVE STAR H-/SR- C L Chau · K W Lui — 87.0 N

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-05 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SIGHT HERO, ridden by L Currie and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with MEGA BONUS second and ABOVE ALL third. The 3.0 favourite MY INTELLIGENT finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SIGHT HERO—3. MEGA BONUS+1L4. ABOVE ALL+1.25L5. HAPPY SOUL+2L6. TURIN WARRIOR+2L7. MY INTELLIGENT+2L8. OUR CLASS ACT+2.5L9. COLOURFUL PRINCE+3.25L10. HAPPY FOREVER+6.5L11. GANG OF BROTHERS+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MY INTELLIGENT (16.9%) finished 7th — the winner SIGHT HERO was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MY INTELLIGENT 16.9% 5.93 7
2 0 MEGA BONUS 16.4% 6.10 3
3 0 GANG OF BROTHERS 13.6% 7.33 11
4 0 ABOVE ALL 9.7% 10.28 4
5 0 COLOURFUL PRINCE 7.6% 13.23 9
6 0 GEM OF SOUTH CHINA 7.0% 14.32 12
7 0 OUR CLASS ACT 6.4% 15.51 8
8 0 TURIN WARRIOR 6.4% 15.73 6
9 0 SIGHT HERO 5.3% 18.92 1
10 0 HAPPY SOUL 5.2% 19.36 5
11 0 HAPPY FOREVER 3.7% 27.11 10
12 0 BRAVE STAR 1.9% 52.60 —
MY INTELLIGENTMEGA BONUSGANG OF BROTHERSABOVE ALLCOLOURFUL PRINCEGEM OF SOUTH CHINAOUR CLASS ACTTURIN WARRIORSIGHT HERO — wonHAPPY SOULHAPPY FOREVERBRAVE STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 159.5

PLACE

5 17.5

6 210.5

8 41

QUINELLA

6,8 4,980

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 812

5,8 115.5

6,8 1,224

FORECAST

8,6 7,504

TIERCE

8,6,5 66,407

TRIO

5,6,8 12,936

FIRST 4

1,5,6,8 14,298

QUARTET

8,6,5,1 477,480

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 38.5

7TH DOUBLE

5/6 721

5/8 839.5