Happy Valley · 2022-10-05 · 21:46
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-05 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ADIOS, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with NAMJONG SINGS second and XPONENTIAL third. The 2.2 favourite DROPS OF GOD finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ADIOS V 1.09.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 4 | 5.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | NAMJONG SINGS B C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 9 | 23.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | XPONENTIAL B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 5 | 7.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | DROPS OF GOD B Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 2 | 2.2 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | DIAMOND BRILLIANT TT V Borges · T P Yung | V Borges | T P Yung | 6 | 40.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | H Z TOURBILLON TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 3 | 3.9 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 7 | 40.0 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | FLYING BONUS P- A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 1 | 16.0 | 10 |
| 9 | 6 | STOICISM B/TT R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 8 | 19.0 | 11-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ADIOS | 22.8% | 4.39 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | DROPS OF GOD | 19.9% | 5.03 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | XPONENTIAL | 11.1% | 9.01 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 | NAMJONG SINGS | 11.1% | 9.01 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | STOICISM | 11.0% | 9.05 | 9 |
| 6 | 9 | H Z TOURBILLON | 10.7% | 9.34 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD | 7.0% | 14.33 | 7 |
| 8 | 8 | DIAMOND BRILLIANT | 3.9% | 25.35 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | FLYING BONUS | 2.5% | 40.42 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 56.5
PLACE
2 47.5
4 18
5 16.5
QUINELLA
2,5 458.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 138.5
2,5 126.5
4,5 48
FORECAST
5,2 752
TIERCE
5,2,4 3,503
TRIO
2,4,5 736
FIRST 4
1,2,4,5 234
QUARTET
5,2,4,1 7,250
All pools (5 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,7,8/2,4,5 13,744
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 28.5
6TH DOUBLE
7/2 136.5
7/5 212.5
TRIPLE TRIO
4,5,6/4,7,8/2,4,5 701,919
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
4,5,6/4,7,8/Any Combination 2,655