Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2022-10-05 · 21:16

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-05 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. NIMBLE NIMBUS, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1, with STORM LEGEND second and KING'S CAPITAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 NIMBLE NIMBUS Closed strongly V/TT 1.39.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu 2 3.4 1
2 8 STORM LEGEND Closed strongly H Bentley · C Fownes 1 3.7 1
3 4 KING'S CAPITAL Closed strongly Z Purton · D A Hayes 4 6.0 2
4 6 VIVA HUNTER L Ferraris · K L Man 6 9.4 3
5 2 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT V Borges · J Size 8 7.0 3-1/2
6 3 MASTER HERO Led early XB/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 10.0 4
7 1 SAVVY KINGMAN L Hewitson · F C Lor 5 10.0 5-1/4
8 5 ROUND THE EARTH Closed strongly B C Y Ho · D J Hall 9 39.0 6
9 9 ODE TO JOY B-/H/XB/SR1/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte 3 35.0 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NIMBLE NIMBUS2. STORM LEGEND+1L3. KING'S CAPITAL+2L4. VIVA HUNTER+3L5. ZONE D+3.5L6. MASTER HERO+4L7. SAVVY KINGMAN+5.25L8. ROUND THE EARTH+6L9. ODE TO JOY+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick NIMBLE NIMBUS (29.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 NIMBLE NIMBUS 29.7% 3.36 1
2 4 KING'S CAPITAL 19.7% 5.08 3
3 6 VIVA HUNTER 12.8% 7.82 4
4 8 STORM LEGEND 12.2% 8.20 2
5 2 ZONE D 8.9% 11.25 5
6 3 MASTER HERO 5.9% 17.09 6
7 1 SAVVY KINGMAN 5.8% 17.24 7
8 9 ODE TO JOY 3.3% 30.60 9
9 5 ROUND THE EARTH 1.8% 56.31 8
NIMBLE NIMBUS — wonKING'S CAPITALVIVA HUNTERSTORM LEGENDZONE DMASTER HEROSAVVY KINGMANODE TO JOYROUND THE EARTH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 34.5

PLACE

4 18.5

7 14.5

8 15

QUINELLA

7,8 59.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 36.5

4,8 29

7,8 25

FORECAST

7,8 143

TIERCE

7,8,4 414

TRIO

4,7,8 90

FIRST 4

4,6,7,8 160

QUARTET

7,8,4,6 2,248

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 18

A3

5TH DOUBLE

5/7 612.5

5/8 93