Happy Valley · 2022-10-05 · 20:46
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-05 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HAPPY GATHERING, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K L Man, won by HD, with EUROMISSILE second and WINS ALL third. The 4.0 favourite FORTUNE MASTER finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | HAPPY GATHERING 1.10.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 6 | 16.0 | HD |
| 2 | 6 | EUROMISSILE B/H/XB M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 5 | 16.0 | HD |
| 3 | 4 | WINS ALL TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 1 | 5.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 12 | RAGING BLAZE TT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 11 | 13.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | ENCORE TT L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 8 | 55.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | REGENCY POET TT H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 3 | 6.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | HANDSOME GUYS H1/TT1 K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 7 | 28.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | FORTUNE MASTER B/XB1/TT1 L Ferraris · J Richards | L Ferraris | J Richards | 2 | 4.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | STAR OF WUYI B C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 4 | 4.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | CIGAR BUDDIES B A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 12 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | FOXHUNTER WAY CP/H K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 9 | 23.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | THIS IS GUTS H/TT C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 10 | 43.0 | 5-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | WINS ALL | 17.3% | 5.78 | 3 |
| 2 | 11 | REGENCY POET | 13.9% | 7.21 | 6 |
| 3 | 1 | CIGAR BUDDIES | 12.9% | 7.73 | 10 |
| 4 | 12 | RAGING BLAZE | 12.0% | 8.32 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | STAR OF WUYI | 11.5% | 8.68 | 9 |
| 6 | 5 | HAPPY GATHERING | 7.8% | 12.79 | 1 |
| 7 | 6 | EUROMISSILE | 6.0% | 16.67 | 2 |
| 8 | 9 | FORTUNE MASTER | 5.0% | 19.99 | 8 |
| 9 | 10 | FOXHUNTER WAY | 4.7% | 21.25 | 11 |
| 10 | 7 | HANDSOME GUYS | 3.6% | 27.97 | 7 |
| 11 | 2 | ENCORE | 3.1% | 32.51 | 5 |
| 12 | 3 | THIS IS GUTS | 2.2% | 45.88 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 168.5
PLACE
4 19
5 40.5
6 42
QUINELLA
5,6 673
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 119.5
4,6 132
5,6 199
FORECAST
5,6 1,058
TIERCE
5,6,4 6,783
TRIO
4,5,6 1,328
FIRST 4
4,5,6,12 2,527
QUARTET
5,6,4,12 64,298
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,6,7/4,5,6 124,464
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 23.5
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
4/5 1,311
4/6 159