Happy Valley · 2022-10-19 · 19:46
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-19 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY ARCHANGEL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with HERCULES second and SPICY GRILL third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB 1.09.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 5 | 2.9 | N |
| 2 | 5 | HERCULES B/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 3 | 9.0 | N |
| 3 | 4 | SPICY GRILL B/TT M Chadwick · P C Ng | M Chadwick | P C Ng | 1 | 6.5 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | NORDIC COMBINED B/TT- L Hewitson · R Gibson | L Hewitson | R Gibson | 4 | 21.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | COLONEL V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 9 | 6.1 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 6 | 42.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | CHICKEN DANCE B K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 2 | 3.6 | 4 |
| 8 | 1 | KOKUSHI MUSOU H/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 10 | 24.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | UNIVERSAL CROWN B M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 7 | 43.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | SHENZHOU TWELVE B1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 11 | 104.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | SIX BEST FRIENDS B/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 8 | 41.0 | 10-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 24.2% | 4.13 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | HERCULES | 15.7% | 6.37 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | CHICKEN DANCE | 15.5% | 6.47 | 7 |
| 4 | 4 | SPICY GRILL | 13.5% | 7.39 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | KOKUSHI MUSOU | 10.8% | 9.24 | 8 |
| 6 | 9 | COLONEL | 6.0% | 16.75 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | NORDIC COMBINED | 5.0% | 20.18 | 4 |
| 8 | 6 | SIX BEST FRIENDS | 3.1% | 31.99 | 11 |
| 9 | 10 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 2.8% | 35.40 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | UNIVERSAL CROWN | 2.3% | 43.81 | 9 |
| 11 | 7 | SHENZHOU TWELVE | 1.1% | 89.22 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 29.5
PLACE
2 12.5
4 18
5 23.5
QUINELLA
2,5 121
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 42
2,5 45.5
4,5 59
FORECAST
2,5 216
TIERCE
2,5,4 552
TRIO
2,4,5 149
FIRST 4
2,4,5,8 484
QUARTET
2,5,4,8 6,772
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
11/2 841.5
11/5 240
3 PICK 1
A1 22.5
A3 —
A2 —