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Happy Valley · 2022-10-19 · 22:18

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course B 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 AMAZING ONE PLUS Closed strongly XB/TT 1.39.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · T P Yung 3 14.0 NOSE
3 0 STORM LEGEND Closed strongly H Bentley · C Fownes 2 3.2 3/4
4 0 GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B S De Sousa · A T Millard 10 10.0 1-1/4
5 0 WINNING DRAGON H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 4 26.0 1-3/4
6 0 SUPER MISSION H/TT V Borges · P F Yiu 1 7.8 2
7 0 LOYAL BABY TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 7 14.0 2
8 0 BEAUTY CHAMP Led early SR-/XB-/H/P1/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 5 6.4 3-1/4
9 0 KING'S CAPITAL Closed strongly K C Leung · D A Hayes 8 24.0 3-1/2
10 0 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB/B1 Z Purton · D J Hall 12 8.8 5-1/4
11 0 THE ANOMALY V M L Yeung · K H Ting 9 18.0 5-3/4
12 0 MASTER DELIGHT B A Badel · J Size 6 25.0 6
— 0 RISING FROM ASHES Closed strongly CP/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui — 10.0 NOSE

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-19 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. AMAZING ONE PLUS, ridden by C L Chau and trained by T P Yung, won by NOSE, with STORM LEGEND second and GIFT OF LIFELINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite STORM LEGEND finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING ONE PLUS—3. STORM LEGEND+0.75L4. GIFT OF LIFELINE+1.25L5. WINNING DRAGON+1.75L6. SUPER MISSION+2L7. LOYAL BABY+2L8. BEAUTY CHAMP+3.25L9. KING'S CAPITAL+3.5L10. MALDIVES+5.25L11. THE ANOMALY+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick STORM LEGEND (20.6%) finished 3rd — the winner AMAZING ONE PLUS was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 STORM LEGEND 20.6% 4.86 3
2 0 SUPER MISSION 14.4% 6.96 6
3 0 BEAUTY CHAMP 11.0% 9.10 8
4 0 MALDIVES 9.3% 10.81 10
5 0 RISING FROM ASHES 8.3% 12.06 —
6 0 THE ANOMALY 6.2% 16.05 11
7 0 MASTER DELIGHT 6.1% 16.35 12
8 0 LOYAL BABY 6.1% 16.49 7
9 0 GIFT OF LIFELINE 5.4% 18.52 4
10 0 AMAZING ONE PLUS 5.2% 19.33 1
11 0 KING'S CAPITAL 4.6% 21.70 9
12 0 WINNING DRAGON 3.0% 33.87 5
STORM LEGENDSUPER MISSIONBEAUTY CHAMPMALDIVESRISING FROM ASHESTHE ANOMALYMASTER DELIGHTLOYAL BABYGIFT OF LIFELINEAMAZING ONE PLUS — wonKING'S CAPITALWINNING DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 144

PLACE

3 38.5

5 33

10 14

QUINELLA

3,5 840.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 260.5

3,10 89

5,10 63.5

FORECAST

5,3 1,627

TIERCE

5,3,10 9,401

TRIO

3,5,10 843

FIRST 4

3,5,6,10 1,566

QUARTET

5,3,10,6 49,365

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 25

A2 —

A1 —

6TH DOUBLE

6/3 30.5

6/5 394