Happy Valley · 2022-10-19 · 20:47
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-19 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MELBOURNE HALL, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/4, with HERO STAR second and SUCCESS FIGHTER third. The 2.8 favourite HERO STAR finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | MELBOURNE HALL B/XB 1.09.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 7 | 18.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 5 | HERO STAR TT S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 5 | 2.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 8 | SUCCESS FIGHTER B/TT H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 10 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | ISLAND SHINE TT A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 6 | 9.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | TRIPLE TRIPLE CP/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 2 | 4.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | EQUILIBRIUM TURBO CP-/H/B1 L Hewitson · R Gibson | L Hewitson | R Gibson | 4 | 15.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | YOUNG LIFE FOREVER K C Leung · C Fownes | K C Leung | C Fownes | 8 | 49.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | REGENT GLORY L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 3 | 7.4 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | HAPPY SOUL CP/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 9 | 9.2 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | WIN WIN CHARITY XB/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 59.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | ABOVE ALL H/XB R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 11 | 17.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | PERFECT ROCK B1 H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 1 | 83.0 | 18-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | TRIPLE TRIPLE | 24.7% | 4.05 | 5 |
| 2 | 5 | HERO STAR | 19.6% | 5.09 | 2 |
| 3 | 9 | REGENT GLORY | 10.4% | 9.61 | 8 |
| 4 | 8 | SUCCESS FIGHTER | 9.4% | 10.69 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | ISLAND SHINE | 7.2% | 13.94 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 | ABOVE ALL | 7.1% | 14.00 | 11 |
| 7 | 1 | EQUILIBRIUM TURBO | 7.1% | 14.12 | 6 |
| 8 | 10 | HAPPY SOUL | 6.0% | 16.78 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 | MELBOURNE HALL | 5.1% | 19.62 | 1 |
| 10 | 11 | WIN WIN CHARITY | 1.4% | 72.17 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | YOUNG LIFE FOREVER | 1.1% | 88.68 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | PERFECT ROCK | 1.0% | 103.96 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 185.5
PLACE
5 13.5
8 35.5
12 41
QUINELLA
5,12 237.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 63
5,12 98.5
8,12 267.5
FORECAST
12,5 734
TIERCE
12,5,8 6,882
TRIO
5,8,12 745
FIRST 4
5,6,8,12 1,199
QUARTET
12,5,8,6 37,812
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,9/5,8,12 17,006
3 PICK 1
A3 30
A2 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
9/5 13
9/12 403