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Happy Valley · 2022-10-19 · 20:16

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course B 10 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-19 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOLD GOLD BABY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with SERGEANT PEPPER second and PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.86
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 GOLD GOLD BABY TT 0.56.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 2.5 SH
2 2 SERGEANT PEPPER K C Leung · Y S Tsui 5 5.9 SH
3 5 PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN H/SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 10 5.2 1/2
4 7 CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 2 15.0 1
5 6 SEE U AGAIN B1/TT2 Z Purton · C S Shum 9 5.7 1-1/4
6 1 FABULOUS EIGHT B/TT A Badel · P F Yiu 7 20.0 1-1/2
7 4 SUPER COMMANDER B/TT C L Chau · P C Ng 6 11.0 2-1/2
8 10 TELECOM MISSILE B/TT A Hamelin · C Fownes 3 45.0 3-3/4
9 8 FLAMING EAGLE H-/PC1/TT H Bentley · P C Ng 1 27.0 5-1/4
10 3 MODEST GENTLEMAN H-/V/TT H T Mo · L Ho 4 74.0 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLD GOLD BABY2. SERGEANT PEPPER+0.1L3. PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN+0.5L4. CIRCUIT SEVEN+1L5. SEE U AGAIN+1.25L6. FABULOUS EIGHT+1.5L7. SUPER COMMANDER+2.5L8. TELECOM MISSILE+3.75L9. FLAMING EAGLE+5.25L10. MODEST GENTLEMAN+13L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SEE U AGAIN (26.1%) finished 5th — the winner GOLD GOLD BABY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 SEE U AGAIN 26.1% 3.83 5
2 5 PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN 13.9% 7.17 3
3 2 SERGEANT PEPPER 13.1% 7.64 2
4 9 GOLD GOLD BABY 11.7% 8.55 1
5 1 FABULOUS EIGHT 9.9% 10.12 6
6 7 CIRCUIT SEVEN 7.5% 13.33 4
7 4 SUPER COMMANDER 7.1% 14.06 7
8 10 TELECOM MISSILE 6.5% 15.39 8
9 8 FLAMING EAGLE 2.7% 36.42 9
10 3 MODEST GENTLEMAN 1.4% 72.74 10
SEE U AGAINPRETTY QUEEN PRAWNSERGEANT PEPPERGOLD GOLD BABY — wonFABULOUS EIGHTCIRCUIT SEVENSUPER COMMANDERTELECOM MISSILEFLAMING EAGLEMODEST GENTLEMAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 25

PLACE

2 16.5

5 17.5

9 13.5

QUINELLA

2,9 78.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 51

2,9 34.5

5,9 32.5

FORECAST

9,2 118

TIERCE

9,2,5 411

TRIO

2,5,9 132

FIRST 4

2,5,7,9 375

QUARTET

9,2,5,7 4,022

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/2 27.5

2/9 81.5

3 PICK 1

A1 17.5

A2

A3