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Happy Valley · 2022-10-19 · 22:52

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-19 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GALLANT WAKING, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with YO BEAUTY second and OUR LUCKY GLORY third. The 3.4 favourite FLYING ACE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 GALLANT WAKING XB 1.09.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 4.0 1/2
2 5 YO BEAUTY CP/H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 12 15.0 1/2
3 6 OUR LUCKY GLORY SR L Hewitson · D J Whyte 4 8.3 1-1/4
4 3 SMART IDEA H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 6 14.0 1-1/4
5 1 FLYING ACE B M F Poon · D J Hall 8 3.4 2
6 4 DECRYPT TT A Hamelin · P C Ng 3 7.3 2-1/2
7 2 DROPS OF GOD B Z Purton · J Size 2 6.2 3-3/4
8 12 COPARTNER FIONN H1/P1 M Chadwick · J Richards 10 23.0 3-3/4
9 7 MASTER TORNADO K C Leung · W Y So 11 52.0 4
10 10 SUPER EAGLE H1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 7 49.0 6-1/4
11 8 TELECOM SPIRIT B1 V Borges · Y S Tsui 1 64.0 8-3/4
12 11 WINE AND WINE B/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 5 34.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALLANT WAKING2. YO BEAUTY+0.5L3. OUR LUCKY GLORY+1.25L4. SMART IDEA+1.25L5. FLYING ACE+2L6. DECRYPT+2.5L7. DROPS OF GOD+3.75L8. COPARTNER FIONN+3.75L9. MASTER TORNADO+4L10. SUPER EAGLE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FLYING ACE (23.7%) finished 5th — the winner GALLANT WAKING was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 FLYING ACE 23.7% 4.22 5
2 2 DROPS OF GOD 14.2% 7.05 7
3 9 GALLANT WAKING 13.0% 7.69 1
4 5 YO BEAUTY 10.4% 9.63 2
5 3 SMART IDEA 9.4% 10.63 4
6 6 OUR LUCKY GLORY 9.2% 10.85 3
7 4 DECRYPT 8.8% 11.39 6
8 12 COPARTNER FIONN 3.0% 33.74 8
9 7 MASTER TORNADO 2.4% 41.85 9
10 8 TELECOM SPIRIT 2.2% 45.07 11
11 11 WINE AND WINE 2.1% 48.01 12
12 10 SUPER EAGLE 1.7% 60.14 10
FLYING ACEDROPS OF GODGALLANT WAKING — wonYO BEAUTYSMART IDEAOUR LUCKY GLORYDECRYPTCOPARTNER FIONNMASTER TORNADOTELECOM SPIRITWINE AND WINESUPER EAGLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 40.5

PLACE

5 37

6 25

9 16

QUINELLA

5,9 288

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 182

5,9 94

6,9 62.5

FORECAST

9,5 559

TIERCE

9,5,6 3,525

TRIO

5,6,9 725

FIRST 4

3,5,6,9 1,077

QUARTET

9,5,6,3 16,466

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 18.5

A2

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,10/5,6,9 96,376

7TH DOUBLE

5/5 398

5/9 1,040.5

SIX UP

2,9/5,12/2,7/4,6/3,5/5,9 14,163

9/12/2/6/5/9 795,328

2 [K W Lui]

3 [C Y Ho]

TREBLE

6/5/5 2,075

6/5/9 4,464