Sha Tin · 2022-11-20 · 12:45
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-20 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WOODFIRE BRO, ridden by K C Leung and trained by L Ho, won by 2-1/4, with TOTAL POWER second and HIT THE SHOT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite FIVE G PATCH finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | WOODFIRE BRO Closed strongly H/TT 2.01.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 10 | 7.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | TOTAL POWER Closed strongly B Y L Chung · D J Hall | Y L Chung | D J Hall | 6 | 26.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | HIT THE SHOT TT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 2 | 4.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 4 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | FIVE G PATCH TT S De Sousa · A S Cruz | S De Sousa | A S Cruz | 1 | 2.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | BLASTOISE L Hewitson · A T Millard | L Hewitson | A T Millard | 8 | 33.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | SECRET VISION Closed strongly TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 7 | 4.6 | 5 |
| 8 | 4 | S J TOURBILLON CP/SR/XB/TT B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 11 | 33.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | NORDIC SKY Led early SR/XB C L Chau · A T Millard | C L Chau | A T Millard | 5 | 46.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1 | ABOVE Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · A T Millard | M Chadwick | A T Millard | 9 | 22.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 3 | PRECISE EXPRESS H M Barzalona · P F Yiu | M Barzalona | P F Yiu | 3 | 34.0 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | HIT THE SHOT | 27.1% | 3.69 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | FIVE G PATCH | 18.4% | 5.44 | 5 |
| 3 | 8 | WOODFIRE BRO | 13.6% | 7.35 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | SECRET VISION | 9.7% | 10.35 | 7 |
| 5 | 11 | NATURAL STORM | 6.4% | 15.56 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | TOTAL POWER | 5.8% | 17.19 | 2 |
| 7 | 1 | ABOVE | 5.6% | 17.96 | 10 |
| 8 | 4 | S J TOURBILLON | 4.6% | 21.76 | 8 |
| 9 | 9 | BLASTOISE | 3.4% | 29.77 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | NORDIC SKY | 3.3% | 30.39 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | PRECISE EXPRESS | 2.2% | 45.01 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 77
PLACE
6 15.5
7 53
8 22.5
QUINELLA
7,8 892.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 154
6,8 53
7,8 223.5
FORECAST
8,7 1,639
TIERCE
8,7,6 9,504
TRIO
6,7,8 1,023
FIRST 4
6,7,8,11 3,055
QUARTET
8,7,6,11 83,438
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 24
A3 —
A1 —