Sha Tin · 2022-11-20 · 16:11

Race 7

Group 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course B+2 7 runners

Result

Official · 1.34.02

Pos	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	GOLDEN SIXTY Closed strongly 1.34.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	6	128 lb	2.0	N
2	CALIFORNIA SPANGLE Led early TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	3	123 lb	1.6	N
3	WAIKUKU S De Sousa · J Size	S De Sousa	J Size	1	128 lb	32.0	2-3/4
4	MORE THAN THIS Closed strongly CP2 K C Leung · C S Shum	K C Leung	C S Shum	4	123 lb	42.0	5
5	EXCELLENT PROPOSAL Closed strongly B A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	7	123 lb	53.0	5-3/4
6	TURIN REDSUN B-/V1/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	2	123 lb	36.0	5-3/4
7	KINGS SHIELD B L Ferraris · F C Lor	L Ferraris	F C Lor	5	123 lb	109.0	13-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-20 was Group 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOLDEN SIXTY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with CALIFORNIA SPANGLE second and WAIKUKU third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.6 favourite CALIFORNIA SPANGLE finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick CALIFORNIA SPANGLE (57.3%) finished 2nd — the winner GOLDEN SIXTY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	CALIFORNIA SPANGLE	57.3%	1.75	2	1.6
2	GOLDEN SIXTY	23.1%	4.33	1	2.0
3	TURIN REDSUN	6.9%	14.54	6	36.0
4	KINGS SHIELD	4.6%	21.94	7	109.0
5	WAIKUKU	2.9%	34.45	3	32.0
6	MORE THAN THIS	2.9%	34.55	4	42.0
7	EXCELLENT PROPOSAL	2.4%	41.87	5	53.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 20.5

PLACE

1 10.5

2 26

3 10.1

QUINELLA

1,3 13

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 48.5

1,3 10.5

2,3 29

FORECAST

1,3 25

TIERCE

1,3,2 153

TRIO

1,2,3 56

FIRST 4

1,2,3,4 64

QUARTET

1,3,2,4 417

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,11,12/1,2,3 55,213

3 PICK 1

A2 20.5

A3 —

A1 —

6TH DOUBLE

11/1 137

11/3 14

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