Sha Tin · 2022-11-20 · 16:11

Race 7

Group 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course B+2 7 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-20 was Group 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOLDEN SIXTY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with CALIFORNIA SPANGLE second and WAIKUKU third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.6 favourite CALIFORNIA SPANGLE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.34.02

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	GOLDEN SIXTY Closed strongly 1.34.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	6	128 lb	2.0	N
2	3	CALIFORNIA SPANGLE Led early TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	3	123 lb	1.6	N
3	2	WAIKUKU S De Sousa · J Size	S De Sousa	J Size	1	128 lb	32.0	2-3/4
4	4	MORE THAN THIS Closed strongly CP2 K C Leung · C S Shum	K C Leung	C S Shum	4	123 lb	42.0	5
5	5	EXCELLENT PROPOSAL Closed strongly B A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	7	123 lb	53.0	5-3/4
6	6	TURIN REDSUN B-/V1/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	2	123 lb	36.0	5-3/4
7	7	KINGS SHIELD B L Ferraris · F C Lor	L Ferraris	F C Lor	5	123 lb	109.0	13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick CALIFORNIA SPANGLE (57.3%) finished 2nd — the winner GOLDEN SIXTY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	CALIFORNIA SPANGLE	57.3%	1.75	2	1.6
2	1	GOLDEN SIXTY	23.1%	4.33	1	2.0
3	6	TURIN REDSUN	6.9%	14.54	6	36.0
4	7	KINGS SHIELD	4.6%	21.94	7	109.0
5	2	WAIKUKU	2.9%	34.45	3	32.0
6	4	MORE THAN THIS	2.9%	34.55	4	42.0
7	5	EXCELLENT PROPOSAL	2.4%	41.87	5	53.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 20.5

PLACE

1 10.5

2 26

3 10.1

QUINELLA

1,3 13

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 48.5

1,3 10.5

2,3 29

FORECAST

1,3 25

TIERCE

1,3,2 153

TRIO

1,2,3 56

FIRST 4

1,2,3,4 64

QUARTET

1,3,2,4 417

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,11,12/1,2,3 55,213

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 20.5

6TH DOUBLE

11/1 137

11/3 14

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