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Sha Tin · 2022-11-20 · 16:48

Race 8

Group 2 GOOD TO FIRM 2000m Course B+2 9 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-20 was Group 2 over 2000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ROMANTIC WARRIOR, ridden by J McDonald and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/4, with TOURBILLON DIAMOND second and SENOR TOBA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.59.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 ROMANTIC WARRIOR Closed strongly TT 1.59.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · C S Shum 9 2.2 1-1/4
2 4 TOURBILLON DIAMOND Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 1 8.7 1-1/4
3 6 SENOR TOBA Closed strongly V/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 3 9.0 2
4 5 KA YING STAR V/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 5 58.0 2-1/2
5 9 MONEY CATCHER Led early B H Bowman · F C Lor 2 20.0 2-3/4
6 7 PANFIELD Closed strongly TT S De Sousa · A T Millard 8 26.0 4-3/4
7 3 BEAUTY JOY H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 4 2.9 4-3/4
8 8 SAVVY NINE B/XB J McNeil · D J Whyte 6 70.0 6-1/2
9 2 RUSSIAN EMPEROR SR B Shinn · D J Whyte 7 15.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ROMANTIC WARRIOR2. TOURBILLON DIAMOND+1.25L3. SENOR TOBA+2L4. KA YING STAR+2.5L5. MONEY CATCHER+2.75L6. PANFIELD+4.75L7. BEAUTY JOY+4.75L8. SAVVY NINE+6.5L9. RUSSIAN EMPEROR+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BEAUTY JOY (30.8%) finished 7th — the winner ROMANTIC WARRIOR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 BEAUTY JOY 30.8% 3.25 7
2 9 MONEY CATCHER 14.8% 6.76 5
3 1 ROMANTIC WARRIOR 14.8% 6.76 1
4 6 SENOR TOBA 11.5% 8.73 3
5 7 PANFIELD 8.1% 12.31 6
6 4 TOURBILLON DIAMOND 8.1% 12.31 2
7 2 RUSSIAN EMPEROR 4.6% 21.54 9
8 5 KA YING STAR 4.0% 24.79 4
9 8 SAVVY NINE 3.3% 30.71 8
BEAUTY JOYMONEY CATCHERROMANTIC WARRIOR — wonSENOR TOBAPANFIELDTOURBILLON DIAMONDRUSSIAN EMPERORKA YING STARSAVVY NINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 22

PLACE

1 12

4 19

6 20

QUINELLA

1,4 86

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 33

1,6 34

4,6 63

FORECAST

1,4 116

TIERCE

1,4,6 555

TRIO

1,4,6 184

FIRST 4

1,4,5,6 907

QUARTET

1,4,6,5 7,937

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 12.5

7TH DOUBLE

1/1 35.5

1/4 31