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Sha Tin · 2022-11-20 · 13:16

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MIGHTY STRIDE, ridden by M Barzalona and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with SUPER SUNNY SING second and VICTORY SCHOLARS third. The 4.1 favourite SUPER SUNNY SING finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 MIGHTY STRIDE 1.08.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Barzalona · P F Yiu 9 12.0 1/2
2 2 SUPER SUNNY SING H M Chadwick · W Y So 4 4.1 1/2
3 4 VICTORY SCHOLARS B-/V1 Y L Chung · C Fownes 3 11.0 1-1/4
4 1 ICE LEGEND BO/H/TT Z Purton · T P Yung 1 4.1 1-3/4
5 12 SUPREME LUCKY TT1 J McDonald · C S Shum 10 11.0 2-1/2
6 6 BRAVE DREAMS H/TT S De Sousa · A S Cruz 5 4.9 3
7 11 ONE HEART ONE CP1/TT1 B Shinn · D A Hayes 11 22.0 4-1/4
8 8 HOSS XB1 L Hewitson · J Richards 8 60.0 4-3/4
9 3 BEAUTY MISSION CP M F Poon · F C Lor 7 21.0 4-3/4
10 5 ACT OF FAITH A Badel · J Size 14 53.0 5-1/2
11 9 I GIVE H1/TT1 K C Leung · P C Ng 6 8.9 6-1/2
12 7 CHOICERUS SR1 H Bowman · D J Whyte 13 60.0 6-3/4
13 14 FORTUNE PRESIDENT B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 2 132.0 7-3/4
14 13 M M NEBULA B/TT J McNeil · K L Man 12 70.0 16-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MIGHTY STRIDE2. SUPER SUNNY SING+0.5L3. VICTORY SCHOLARS+1.25L4. ICE LEGEND+1.75L5. SUPREME LUCKY+2.5L6. BRAVE DREAMS+3L7. ONE HEART ONE+4.25L8. HOSS+4.75L9. BEAUTY MISSION+4.75L10. ACT OF FAITH+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ICE LEGEND (28.6%) finished 4th — the winner MIGHTY STRIDE was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 ICE LEGEND 28.6% 3.50 4
2 6 BRAVE DREAMS 19.8% 5.05 6
3 2 SUPER SUNNY SING 11.3% 8.84 2
4 3 BEAUTY MISSION 6.4% 15.75 9
5 7 CHOICERUS 5.0% 19.99 12
6 4 VICTORY SCHOLARS 4.6% 21.75 3
7 5 ACT OF FAITH 4.6% 21.83 10
8 9 I GIVE 4.3% 23.42 11
9 13 M M NEBULA 3.8% 26.09 14
10 12 SUPREME LUCKY 3.3% 30.04 5
11 11 ONE HEART ONE 3.3% 30.49 7
12 10 MIGHTY STRIDE 2.2% 44.63 1
13 8 HOSS 2.2% 45.71 8
14 14 FORTUNE PRESIDENT 0.7% 152.42 13
ICE LEGENDBRAVE DREAMSSUPER SUNNY SINGBEAUTY MISSIONCHOICERUSVICTORY SCHOLARSACT OF FAITHI GIVEM M NEBULASUPREME LUCKYONE HEART ONEMIGHTY STRIDE — wonHOSSFORTUNE PRESIDENT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 125

PLACE

2 15.5

4 31

10 43

QUINELLA

2,10 337

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 96.5

2,10 110.5

4,10 193.5

FORECAST

10,2 799

TIERCE

10,2,4 5,456

TRIO

2,4,10 994

FIRST 4

1,2,4,10 950

QUARTET

10,2,4,1 28,000

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

8/2 61

8/10 716.5

3 PICK 1

A3 30

A1

A2