Sha Tin · 2022-11-20 · 17:58

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-20 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOOD BUDDY, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 3/4, with MASSIVE ACTION second and ROCKET SPADE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.03

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	GOOD BUDDY Closed strongly 1.21.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall	H Bowman	D J Hall	1	123 lb	2.9	3/4
2	10	MASSIVE ACTION Led early SR/V K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	5	120 lb	22.0	3/4
3	4	ROCKET SPADE Closed strongly PC-/XB/TT B Shinn · C Fownes	B Shinn	C Fownes	14	128 lb	24.0	1-1/2
4	14	HAPPY DAY Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W Y So	M Chadwick	W Y So	9	116 lb	9.4	1-3/4
5	12	TAMRA BLITZ Closed strongly H/SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	2	118 lb	18.0	3-1/4
6	6	DECRYPT Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · P C Ng	C Y Ho	P C Ng	13	127 lb	12.0	5-3/4
7	2	WINNER METHOD TT J McDonald · C S Shum	J McDonald	C S Shum	8	135 lb	8.8	6-1/4
8	1	ERIMO B Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	3	135 lb	3.2	6-1/2
9	13	SUPER BABY Closed strongly CP M F Poon · P F Yiu	M F Poon	P F Yiu	11	115 lb	173.0	6-1/2
10	7	MASTER HERO XB/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	6	116 lb	18.0	7
11	8	RUNNING AHEAD C L Chau · T P Yung	C L Chau	T P Yung	7	123 lb	120.0	7-3/4
12	5	COBHFIELD Closed strongly XB S De Sousa · A T Millard	S De Sousa	A T Millard	12	127 lb	62.0	9-1/4
13	11	SEASONS BLISS B L Ferraris · K H Ting	L Ferraris	K H Ting	4	120 lb	48.0	11
14	3	MASTER MONTARO CP J McNeil · D A Hayes	J McNeil	D A Hayes	10	130 lb	65.0	12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick ERIMO (36.0%) finished 8th — the winner GOOD BUDDY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	ERIMO	36.0%	2.78	8	3.2
2	9	GOOD BUDDY	12.9%	7.73	1	2.9
3	14	HAPPY DAY	6.4%	15.66	4	9.4
4	5	COBHFIELD	6.3%	15.77	12	62.0
5	2	WINNER METHOD	5.6%	17.96	7	8.8
6	6	DECRYPT	5.2%	19.09	6	12.0
7	7	MASTER HERO	5.2%	19.18	10	18.0
8	12	TAMRA BLITZ	5.0%	19.92	5	18.0
9	4	ROCKET SPADE	4.9%	20.57	3	24.0
10	10	MASSIVE ACTION	3.4%	29.12	2	22.0
11	3	MASTER MONTARO	3.3%	30.28	14	65.0
12	11	SEASONS BLISS	3.3%	30.48	13	48.0
13	8	RUNNING AHEAD	1.6%	61.18	11	120.0
14	13	SUPER BABY	0.8%	125.12	9	173.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 29

PLACE

4 64

9 14.5

10 49

QUINELLA

9,10 295.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,9 130

4,10 687

9,10 104

FORECAST

9,10 559

TIERCE

9,10,4 9,129

TRIO

4,9,10 1,742

FIRST 4

4,9,10,14 4,210

QUARTET

9,10,4,14 82,139

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 15

A2 —

A3 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,9/4,9,10 153,959

9TH DOUBLE

9/9 137

9/10 191.5

SIX UP

8,9/4,11/1,3/1,4/1,9/9,10 796

9/11/1/1/9/9 9,143

3 [C S Shum] —

1 [Z Purton] —

TREBLE

1/9/9 484

1/9/10 651

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