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Sha Tin · 2022-12-04 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-04 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. THE MULTIPLIER, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3-1/4, with GOLD COMET second and TELECOM MISSILE third. The 3.0 favourite DIAMOND SOARS finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.08.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 THE MULTIPLIER B/TT 1.08.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D A Hayes 6 3.7 3-1/4
2 9 GOLD COMET B V Borges · C H Yip 10 21.0 3-1/4
3 4 TELECOM MISSILE B/TT L Currie · C Fownes 3 12.0 3-1/4
4 8 GOLDEN MISSION B/TT S De Sousa · C W Chang 9 17.0 3-1/4
5 11 DASHING GENIUS TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 11 16.0 3-1/2
6 10 SUPER CLASS B-/XB/H1/P1 H Bentley · A T Millard 8 34.0 5-1/2
7 6 TSUEN WAN GLORY H/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 1 17.0 5-1/2
8 3 COLOURFUL PRINCE H/SR/TT Z Purton · D J Whyte 5 5.0 6-1/4
9 7 EMBARKED B/XB1/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 12 74.0 7
10 1 DIAMOND SOARS H/TT Y L Chung · P F Yiu 4 3.0 7-1/2
11 2 BEAUTY NOVA H/P2/TT H Bowman · J Size 7 17.0 10-1/2
12 12 NOBODY KNOWS V- H T Mo · L Ho 2 74.0 15-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE MULTIPLIER2. GOLD COMET+3.25L3. TELECOM MISSILE+3.25L4. GOLDEN MISSION+3.25L5. DASHING GENIUS+3.5L6. SUPER CLASS+5.5L7. TSUEN WAN GLORY+5.5L8. COLOURFUL PRINCE+6.25L9. EMBARKED+7L10. DIAMOND SOARS+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick COLOURFUL PRINCE (24.2%) finished 8th — the winner THE MULTIPLIER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 COLOURFUL PRINCE 24.2% 4.12 8
2 1 DIAMOND SOARS 18.9% 5.28 10
3 8 GOLDEN MISSION 8.8% 11.37 4
4 5 THE MULTIPLIER 8.4% 11.87 1
5 2 BEAUTY NOVA 7.6% 13.10 11
6 4 TELECOM MISSILE 7.1% 14.03 3
7 6 TSUEN WAN GLORY 7.0% 14.19 7
8 7 EMBARKED 5.0% 20.10 9
9 11 DASHING GENIUS 4.5% 22.02 5
10 10 SUPER CLASS 3.3% 30.53 6
11 12 NOBODY KNOWS 3.0% 33.82 12
12 9 GOLD COMET 2.0% 49.14 2
COLOURFUL PRINCEDIAMOND SOARSGOLDEN MISSIONTHE MULTIPLIER — wonBEAUTY NOVATELECOM MISSILETSUEN WAN GLORYEMBARKEDDASHING GENIUSSUPER CLASSNOBODY KNOWSGOLD COMET

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 37.5

PLACE

4 32.5

5 14.5

9 67

QUINELLA

5,9 621.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 78.5

4,9 385

5,9 183

FORECAST

5,9 1,203

TIERCE

5,9,4 8,923

TRIO

4,5,9 1,699

FIRST 4

4,5,8,9 2,930

QUARTET

5,9,4,8 53,682

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 21.5

A2