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Sha Tin · 2022-12-04 · 16:06

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-04 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. HANDSOME TWELVE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by 1/2, with TRUE LEGEND second and ROYAL BOMB third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.36.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 HANDSOME TWELVE Closed strongly 1.36.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung 2 2.5 1/2
2 1 TRUE LEGEND Led early B Y L Chung · F C Lor 12 6.9 1/2
3 6 ROYAL BOMB Closed strongly V/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 10 7.4 3-1/4
4 3 COPARTNER ELITES Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 1 6.3 3-3/4
5 7 HAVA NAGEELA Closed strongly B1 K C Leung · F C Lor 13 36.0 4-1/2
6 14 YES WE CAN Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · T P Yung 9 5.6 4-1/2
7 9 TRADER CP/TT C L Chau · P C Ng 11 25.0 5
8 11 AMAZING TEENS H/P/TT A Hamelin · J Size 6 30.0 5
9 8 KING'S CAPITAL Closed strongly L Hewitson · D A Hayes 7 43.0 9
10 4 BEAR SLAM M Chadwick · D J Hall 5 35.0 9-1/2
11 2 BEAUTY FIT B-/E/PC2 V Borges · J Size 8 42.0 9-3/4
12 12 BULLETPROOF V C Wong · P F Yiu 3 173.0 10-1/4
13 13 GOLDEN LINK L Ferraris · P F Yiu 14 140.0 10-1/2
14 10 ULTRA EXPRESS B/TT L Currie · A T Millard 4 92.0 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HANDSOME TWELVE2. TRUE LEGEND+0.5L3. ROYAL BOMB+3.25L4. COPARTNER ELITES+3.75L5. HAVA NAGEELA+4.5L6. YES WE CAN+4.5L7. TRADER+5L8. AMAZING TEENS+5L9. KING'S CAPITAL+9L10. BEAR SLAM+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HANDSOME TWELVE (30.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 HANDSOME TWELVE 30.1% 3.32 1
2 14 YES WE CAN 22.8% 4.39 6
3 1 TRUE LEGEND 7.4% 13.54 2
4 6 ROYAL BOMB 7.1% 14.15 3
5 3 COPARTNER ELITES 5.1% 19.50 4
6 4 BEAR SLAM 4.5% 22.03 10
7 11 AMAZING TEENS 4.5% 22.32 8
8 7 HAVA NAGEELA 3.5% 28.98 5
9 9 TRADER 3.1% 31.83 7
10 8 KING'S CAPITAL 3.1% 32.59 9
11 12 BULLETPROOF 3.0% 32.99 12
12 13 GOLDEN LINK 2.3% 42.82 13
13 2 BEAUTY FIT 2.3% 43.90 11
14 10 ULTRA EXPRESS 1.2% 82.53 14
HANDSOME TWELVE — wonYES WE CANTRUE LEGENDROYAL BOMBCOPARTNER ELITESBEAR SLAMAMAZING TEENSHAVA NAGEELATRADERKING'S CAPITALBULLETPROOFGOLDEN LINKBEAUTY FITULTRA EXPRESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 25

PLACE

1 24.5

5 12.5

6 24.5

QUINELLA

1,5 80.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 40.5

1,6 96

5,6 39.5

FORECAST

5,1 142

TIERCE

5,1,6 704

TRIO

1,5,6 197

FIRST 4

1,3,5,6 277

QUARTET

5,1,6,3 3,607

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,11/1,5,6 207,537

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 14

A3

6TH DOUBLE

11/1 264

11/5 722.5